Showing posts with label Mark Trumbo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Trumbo. Show all posts

Friday, December 23, 2016

How to Conquer Coors Field and Make the Rockies Contenders


Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, I won't pretend to be a fan of the Colorado Rockies. I will always harbor reservations about a team that plays in a state conducting a dangerous experiment with legal marijuana. If it were up to me, baseball would only be played in the prairies and fields of America's heartland, not in the bizarre atmospheric conditions of the Rocky Mountains, a cruel and inhospitable terrain barely fit for habitation by humans.

Nonetheless, in spite of Colorado's deadly tryst with the devil's lettuce, the Rockies are here to stay. Coors Field and its anomalous playing conditions are also here to stay. The powerhouse New York Yankees of old used to dominate because they crafted a roster that gelled with their stadium: by pursuing left-handed power bats, the Bronx Bombers were able to create high-octane offenses that could take advantage of the short porch in right field with ease. The 2015 Royals won the World Series because they prioritized excellent defensive outfielders with the speed and range to patrol the spacious Kauffman Stadium. Colorado needs to follow this blueprint and construct a Rockies team that takes full advantage of their dinger-friendly stadium.

It's now or never for the Rockies. They have an opening to seriously compete in the National League West, but only if the front office shows some serious strategic vision. The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are not contending; a smartly-built Rockies team could rack up wins against these bottom-feeders. In addition, 2017 is an odd year, so the San Francisco Giants will suck. Throw in a Los Angeles Dodgers team that is just treading water by extending certain players like Kenley Jensen while allowing key pieces like Joe Blanton and Chase Utley to leave, and you have something of a power vacuum within the division. The Dodgers will still be the team to beat in the NL West, but with a good off-season the Rockies could give Los Angeles a run for their money and seriously contend for a Wild Card.

I know it would be tempting for the Rockies to pat themselves on the back for the Mike Dunn signing and call it an off-season, but there's still work to be done to create a Rockies roster that fully exploits the idiosyncratic characteristics of Coors Field. Here's how to create a Rockies team danker than Blueberry Diesel:


BRING BACK RABURN



There's no sugar-coating how bad Ryan Raburn's 2016 season was. The Rockies were expecting a little more productivity than a measly 9 dingers and 30 RBIs. But saavy baseball fans like myself could've seen this coming. In fact, Raburn's underwhelming 2016 campaign was totally predictable, and followed a long trend for the 35 year old slugger:

Raburn's numbers, 2011-2016
Raburn is a volatile player. In even years (like 2016) Raburn is all but useless, a worse investment than a donation to the now-defunct Clinton Foundation. In contrast, odd year Raburn is quite good, boasting a higher batting average, more power, and more RBIs. It's not Raburn's fault the Rockies signed him in the decline stage of his boom-bust cycle. That being said, the Rockies should absolutely bring Raburn back next year to reap the righteous harvest which they have sown. Sign him to another one-year contract and bask in the glory of odd year Ryan Raburn. Raburn's true power in Coors Field will be quite a sight to behold.

SIGN DOUG FISTER



Folks, it's no secret that many of Colorado's problems are pitching related. The Rockies have great young position players like Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and reigning NL batting champ DJ LeMahieu, but have struggled at run prevention. Colorado's Achilles Heel is pitching. It's difficult to develop quality starting pitching in a punishing ballpark that gives up home runs more freely than Colorado's marijuana dispensaries wantonly give edible marijuana candies to unsuspecting children.

Which candies are safe and which are drugged? Children don't know either.
Enter Doug Fister. Doug quietly had a solid year with the Houston Astros last season, as he tried to rebuild his value on a one-year contract. There was a lot to like about Fister's 2016 season. Despite missing April, May, and most of June with an injury, Fister racked up 12 wins and pitched nearly 200 innings. The 180 quality innings that Fister threw last season would've been the 2nd most on the 2016 Rockies: only Chad Bettis, who threw 186 innings, pitched more. If healthy, Fister would be a lock to throw well over 200 innings next season. He's still just a few years removed from a borderline Cy Young campaign in 2014 with the Nationals where he had a 2.41 ERA and won 16 games. Not sold yet?

Fister isn't an enticing free agent option for the Rockies merely because of his workhorse, innings-eating track record. His profile would be an excellent match with Coors Field. Fister's xFIP and K/9 numbers aren't going to get the nerds at fangraphs hot and bothered; but when he's on top of his game, he generates lots of ground balls. Let me tell you something about ground balls, folks. When I was 6 years old, my father put me on his knee and taught me some life lessons I'll never forget: never drink on an empty stomach, don't eat the tomatoes at fast food restaurants, and don't let fly ball pitchers pitch in high altitude environments. Here's another true fact: balls hit on the ground can't be home runs, folks, unless through defensive incompetency someone nabs an inside the park homer. Fortunately, Dougie Fresh is a ground ball guru. He generated a whopping 19 double plays last year. The Rockies need guys who can keep the ball on the ground. The Rockies need quality pitching at an affordable price. They need Fister to team 'em how to Dougie.

DOUBLE DOWN ON POWER BATS


There are tons of reasonably priced power bats available on the open market this off-season. If I were the Rockies GM, I would start by signing some guys who can actually play first base. Ian Desmond was a good signing, but he's never played first base before, and the Rockies' replacement options are weak if Mr. Desmond gets injured. I'm skeptical that Desmond, who played exclusively in the outfield last season, will seamlessly plug into first base. Playing first base isn't easy, just ask Ron Washington. Fortunately there are some solid options on the free agent market: Chris Carter and Justin Morneau in particular stand out.


If the Rockies are smart, they'll create a Chris Carter/Justin Morneau platoon at first base next season. Carter hit a whopping 41 dingers last season, 6th most in all of the MLB and more than every Colorado player except Arenado. Carter's right-handed bat would represent a fierce power threat smack dab in the middle of an already stacked Rockies lineup. Crucially, Carter's right-handed power would pair perfectly with the left-handed batting prowess of former Rockie Justin Morneau, another free agent first baseman. It's not everyday you have an opportunity to lock up the 2006 AL MVP, folks. Remember the good old days of Morneau in a Rockies uniform? In 2014, Morneau batted .319 with 17 HRs and 82 RBIs with Colorado. He looked surprisingly good in very limited action with the White Sox last season as well, providing modest power and a .261 batting average along with some veteran leadership. You could expect his offensive numbers to surge next season playing in the harrowing confines of Coors. As a package deal, you'd be hard pressed to find a better righty/lefty one-two punch at first base than Carter and Morneau.


Don't stop there either, Rockies. There's lots of other ways to upgrade the team's offense. Mark Trumbo is still inexplicably available. He hit 47 HRs last year with the Orioles in an MVP-worthy campaign. He could easily crack 60 dingers if he played a full year in Coors. A Rockies lineup that featured Trumbo, Carter, and Morneau would give Clayton Kershaw nightmares and make every opposing pitcher lie awake at night, terrified at the idea of pitching to that lineup in Coors Field. You might be wondering: what are the Rockies going to do with all these first basemen and outfielders? Let them duke it out for the starting roles at Spring Training, and deal the extra players for pitching. Get it done, Rockies.

CONCLUSION


The time to play it safe has come and gone. There is blood in the water in the NL West. The Giants' even year magic is dead. The Dodgers have not upgraded their roster and may even get worse in some respects. The time has come for the Rockies to get serious about contending. Their talented core of positions players isn't getting any younger. Some smart moves could easily get the Rockies into the 85-win range that would thrust them right into the thick of the Wild Card race.

The Rockies organization owes it to their fans to win a World Series championship before Colorado's medical infrastructure collapses under the weight of an imminent marijuana-poisoning epidemic. The leaf-lovers in Denver and Boulder are probably too stoned to care that the Rockies have not lived up to their potential. But the good people of blue-collar towns like Silver Cliff, Colorado -- a community built by the grandsons and granddaughters of hard-working silver miners -- deserve to see a World Series victory in their lifetime. If the Colorado front office stops messing around and locks up phenom talents like Mark Trumbo, they'll have taken a small step towards doing right by the folks in Colorado sober enough to appreciate a quality baseball team.


Monday, December 5, 2016

Wouldn't It Be Nice? How to Take the 2017 Dodgers to the Promised Land


Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, let me tell you about a great American band, hailing from the great American city of Hawthorne, California. Three brothers, their cousin, and a childhood friend, all singing together in perfect harmony. Together they wrote the soundtrack of summer, filling the airwaves with songs of sunny beaches, gentle waves, beautiful girls, sleek cars and never-ending romances. Their vocal arrangements were angelic; with layers and layers of gorgeous, lush harmonies that blended the transcendence of a church choir with all-American rock-and-roll. Folks, if you grew up in the 1960s like I did, you knew that the greatest band in the world came from America, not England.


The ultimate downfall of the Beach Boys was their move away from what made them great. Instead of writing songs about drag-racing, surfing, and drive-in theaters like they did in the good old days, they started to get all "introspective." They began to use the devil's lettuce, and worse, acid. The happy-go-lucky sunshine pop of "California Girls" eventually gave way to the incomprehensible pretension of "Pet Sounds." Their music became too psychedelic for my taste, and their commercial success suffered as a result. But I'll never forget those innocent early days when they mixed barbershop-quartet harmonies with Chuck Berry-style rhythm-and-blues, giving voice to the hopes and anxieties of millions of teenagers around our great nation.

Folks, I can think of another Californian staple in need of a return to its roots: the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's simply stunning that the Dodgers have not managed to win a World Series over the past half-decade or so. The Dodgers have had every advantage. They've won their division four times in a row and get to beat up on the perennially pathetic Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Padres. They regularly have the league's highest payroll. They have the unquestioned greatest pitcher alive, Clayton Kershaw. They even have a supposed genius at the helm, Andrew Friedman (or Fraudman if you are inclined to be skeptical of sabermetrics like myself).

Yet, in spite of all these tailwinds, the Dodgers have not reached the promised land. Folks, here's how I'd reload the team for a run at the World Series in 2017:

1) SIGN MARK TRUMBO


Folks, it's no secret that the Dodgers suck against left handed pitching. You wouldn't believe it, folks. How bad was it? They were DEAD LAST in batting average vs LHP last season:

[source - via ESPN]
How can a team with a budget larger than most Latin American economies fail to find a few guys that can hit southpaws? This was a problem long in the making. A few seasons ago they traded away noted lefty masher Matt Kemp and never had a strategy for replacing his juicy production. The Dodgers could always just try to trade for Matt Kemp, but if they'd rather dip into the well of free agency, they can finally acquire a man to destroy left-handed pitching: Mark Trumbo. Mark Trumbo pummels lefties like Obama has pummeled our pocketbooks over the past 8 years with his sky-rocketing health insurance premiums and over-regulation of made-up liberal conspiracies like "anthropogenic climate change."

Mark Trumbo, who I firmly maintain should've been the AL MVP this past season, could be just the guy the Dodgers need to jump-start their offense. The Dodgers are in desperate need of right-handed power. The Dodgers hit 37 home-runs against lefties all last season; Mr. Trumbo hit 47 home-runs all by himself last season. Get it done, Fraudman.


(all 47 of Trumbo's dingers)

2) BRING BACK A.J. ELLIS



The turning point of the 2016 Dodgers season was the disastrous decision to trade A.J. Ellis, the emotional rock of the team. 
Trading away Kershaw's favorite catcher and telling him to "make do" with Yasmandi Grandal and Carlos Ruiz is a little like sending R2-D2 to the scrap-heap and telling Luke Skywalker to go pilot his X-Wing with some other random astromech droid. Folks, there's a lot more to being a good catcher than your Isolated Power (ISO) or pitch-framing metrics. It's about knowing the pitchers, being their friend, being their anchor, being their comfort in a cold, hard, and cruel game. The Dodgers are a better team with A.J. in the clubhouse and behind the plate. Bring him back, Fraudman.

3) LOCK DOWN THE 9TH INNING



Folks, in a perfect world the Dodgers would bring back Kenley Jansen. That should be their Plan A. Kenley was formidable in the playoffs, proving his mental toughness and fortitude. But what if the Cubs or the Nationals or somebody else go crazy and outbid the Dodgers for Jansen's services? Then things get more complicated. Plan B should be Fernando Rodney.

Folks, Rodney's talents have always been wasted in small markets like Seattle or Miami. It's time to put him under the LA spotlight. Rodney is fresh off of a bounce-back 2016 campaign where he posted a solid 3.44 ERA, 25 saves, and 74 Ks in 65.1 innings pitched. He is without a doubt the best closer in this crop of free agents: Rodney's 261 career saves easily bests Jansen (189), Aroldis Champan (182), and Mark Melancon (168). If the goal is to give skipper Dave Roberts a reliable guy to lock down the 9th inning, there is nobody more qualified than Rodney. Pay the man, Fraudman!


4) KEEP THE PHILADELPHIA BOYS TOGETHER



Folks, if A.J. Ellis was the heart and soul of the 2016 Dodgers, then Joe Blanton and Chase Utley are the team's dirty fingernails. What Blanton and Utley lack in youth they make up for tenfold in their sheer grit, perseverance, effort, and tenacity. Forged in the grease-fires of Philly, Blanton and Utley took the Phillies to the promised land back in 2008, and are just the type of player the Dodgers want to keep around if they're trying to reach the promised land in 2017.

I know there's lots of talk of the Dodgers trading for Ian Kinsler of the Detroit Tigers or Brian Dozier of the Minnesota Twins. But the asking price will be high, and the Dodgers would be loathe to whittle away their farm system when Utley is more than capable of being a competent second baseman. Give Utley a 4 years/$60 million contract and bring back Blanton no matter what the cost. The Dodgers might consider giving stalwart veterans Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard a phone call too. The 2008 Phillies knew how to win, yet the Dodgers have many green-in-the-gills young guns (Corey Seager, Julio Urias, etc.) who need veteran leadership. Make it so, Fraudman.


CONCLUSION


The Dodgers don't need to break the bank or drain the farm system for an ace like Chris Sale. If they make a move for any starting pitcher, it should be Zack Greinke. But I digress. The Dodgers are already a great team, a brotherhood of ball-players all in perfect harmony with one another. The Dodgers don't need a sabermetric revolution anymore than the Beach Boys needed to experiment with hallucinogens. If the Dodgers return to their roots in 2017 -- by doubling down on right-handed power, lock-down closers, and the 2008 Phillies -- there's no telling how much Fun, Fun, Fun they can have.


Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Mark Trumbo for MVP


Danville, Kentucky -- Every now and then, a man faces a choice so clear, it feels as though the choice was predetermined; laid out before him by some invisible hand of fate. Some of life's choices are difficult, and made only after painstaking contemplation and internal debate: Raising Cane's or Popeyes, Mike Pence or Newt Gingrich, Spicy Nacho or Cool Ranch.


After the 2015 season, the Baltimore Orioles faced a difficult choice: they needed dingers. Their starting pitching rotation was star-studded and full of more big guns than a Schwarzenegger movie: any rotation with Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, and Mike Wright is destined for October glory. Yet, the roster was incomplete. The Orioles did not have enough slow plodding guys who can hit moon-shots out of the comically small confines of Camden Yards. The Orioles gambled and signed Mark Trumbo, an aging slugger with a bit of an injury history. Their difficult decision paid off: by all measures, he was the missing piece that the Orioles needed to become a true offensive juggernaut and return to the post-season.

This year, the BWAA faces a very simple choice. The choice before them - for the American League MVP - is as clear as Trump's conscience after a 3 AM twitter meltdown. Mark Trumbo, right-fielder for the Baltimore Orioles, is the American League's Most Value Player. To make my case, I need only one stat:


47 bombs, and a monstrous 100+ RBI season. Forget OBP. Forget base-running. Forget DRS. Trumbo is a man who knows how to put his team on the scoreboard, and carry his teammates upon his broad shoulders. Mike Trout couldn't get his team to the postseason; Mark Trumbo, Trout's one-time mentor while an Anaheim Angel, could. Mike Trout and his 9 fWAR points couldn't get his team to the post-season; that's not valuable. Trumbo, on the other hand, has come through in the clutch time in and time out. Like a fifth of vodka after a tortuous divorce, Trumbo is there when you need him.