Monday, October 24, 2016

Forgot About Cleveland: TWTW's 2016 World Series Preview

Danville, Kentucky -- This is the World Series they said would never happen. Two underdogs enter, but only one team's Cinderella Story will be consummated with a fairy-tale happy ending. The Cleveland Indians haven't won a World Series in 68 years, whereas the Chicago Cubs haven't won a World Series in 108 years. Two cities, both alike in dignity, both alike in their decades long championship droughts.

On the one hand we have the Chicago Cubs. The 103-win superteam and darlings of major league baseball. An impeccable combination of sparkling young talents -- Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez -- and gritty veterans like Jon Lester, John Lackey, Ben Zobrist and Grandpa David Ross.

On the other hand are the Cleveland Indians: the underdogs of underdogs. The powers that be have bet against the Tribe every step of the way.

Take a look at crooked ESPN's playoff predictions:

The failing USA Today's predictions are no better:

Between the combined brain-trusts of ESPN and USA Today, more than 30 so-called 'experts' made MLB playoff predictions. Only 4 'experts' had Cleveland advancing out of the first round. Folks, I'll admit that even I under-estimated this team, although I did have no doubt they'd get past the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS.

How did everybody get the Indians so wrong?

Maybe they forgot about Mike Napoli, a man with a illustrious history of hitting clutch postseason knocks. Maybe they forgot about Coco Crisp, a veteran with the name of a cereal but the heart of a champion. Maybe they forgot about Josh Tomlin, the secret weapon of the Indians rotation and a more than adequate replacement for Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. Maybe they forgot about Rajai Davis, the speedy man who runs the basepaths like Crooked Hillary runs from FBI indictments. Maybe they forgot about unlikely contributors such as Ryan Merritt, a spot-starter who became the unexpected hero of ALCS Game 5 by throwing 4 and 1/3 innings of shutout baseball against a scary Blue Jays offense. They certainly forgot about ALCS MVP Andrew Miller, Cleveland's relief ace and throwback to the multi-inning closers of old like Mariano Rivera and Dennis Eckersley.

No matter what their reasons were for counting out Cleveland, the 'experts' don't appear to have learned their lesson. The Cubbies and their shiny UZR ratings and sterling starting rotation FIP are already heavy favorites to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy when all is said and done.
Folks, I'm not sold on the Cubs. Jon Lester can't throw to first; it cost him the AL Wild Card game in 2014, and it will probably cost him against the Indians, an excellent baserunning unit. Aside from Aroldis Chapman, their bullpen lacks saavy veterans. It was a mistake for them to let Joe Nathan go. In addition, the Cubs are still a cursed team, as the Curse of the Billy Goat has yet to be lifted. Meanwhile, LeBron James and the Cavaliers have shown that Cleveland is not cursed and laid to rest any doubts that the city of Cleveland is capable of winning championships. Most importantly, Cleveland has home-field advantage thanks to Johnny Cueto's implosion and Eric Hosmer's heroics in the 2016 All Star Game. Cleveland has some of the best fans in baseball. The Indians and their fans are everything that's right about America: they're politically incorrect (like our next president), they're blue-collar, and they're homegrown. Chicago North Siders, on the other hand, tend to be out-of-touch elitists like this:

Folks, my gut tells me the Indians will win. They've already overcome adversity and numerous injuries to key players like Salazar, Carrasco, and Yan Gomes. Even Trevor Bauer showed more grit than I ever imagined was possible, by attempting to play through a lacerated thumb that was bleeding profusely.

My gut tells me Cleveland's winning formula will continue to win: get some clutch hits, get 4 or 5 solid innings from your starters and then get ready for Miller Time.

It's a shame one of these teams will have to end their season with a historically awful championship drought still alive. In that sense, October baseball is a crueler mistress than the woman I met at a Sonic Drive-In in Smyrna, Tennessee. We were having an affair, and chose to cap off a weekend of infidelity with the fantastic eats a man can only find at America's best drive-in food joint. When I wouldn't share my Chili Cheese Tots with her, chaos ensued.

In a fit of rage, she reached for my phone without me looking and texted my wife, confessing to the tryst. And thus my fourth marriage was ended. The Cubs' magical season could meet a similarly heart-wrenching end if the Indians continue to win against all odds and all sabermetric logic. Just like a man can only legally have one wife, only one team will emerge from the World Series with their depressing drought dispelled. I wouldn't bet against Cleveland, the city that has already proved so many folks wrong.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Tim Kaine: Unfit for Vice President

Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, I reserve a special and terrible rage for bandwagon fans. Nothing makes me feel vicious, burning fury deep in the pit of my stomach more than a guy whose rooting loyalties are as whimsical as Crooked Hillary's public and private positions. In sports as it is in geopolitics, geography is destiny. The only thing that can prevent sports fandom from devolving into a Seinfeldian exercise in "rooting for laundry" is to loyally root for only those teams which are geographically proximate to what you consider your 'home.' Picking and choosing what teams to root for degrades the integrity of sports fandom and renders the whole enterprise a meaningless exercise in standings-watching.

My Uncle Bert is a man who understands this. My Uncle Bert lives in Flint, Michigan. He's a life long Detroit Lions fan, a team that has never appeared in the Super Bowl and owns the second-longest championship drought in professional sports. He worked from 8-to-5, five days a week at the GM plant for most of his adult life. He would spend his free-time on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays chatting with his co-workers around the water cooler about whatever the latest Lions tragedy was: Barry Sanders retiring, Marty Mornhinwheg electing to take the wind rather than the ball in a confounding overtime loss to the Chicago Bears in 2001, the 2-14 2001 season, the 0-16 2008 season, the Charles Rogers bust, Calvin Johnson retiring, etc. These are but a few of the puzzling heartbreaks my Uncle has had to endure during his long tenure as a Lions fan.

With each passing year, fewer and fewer co-workers would chat with my uncle around the water cooler about the Motor City's not-so-loveable losers. With time, many fairweather Lions fans became Green Bay Packers fans, or Minnesota Vikings fans, or Bears fans. Yet, my Uncle has faithfully persevered. His loyalty will be rewarded with a special satisfaction only true fans can enjoy when the valleys of his misery are lifted up and every mountain and hill of NFL glory are made low, when the Lions finally win a Super Bowl.

The same cannot be said of many sports fans. Everybody knows that one co-worker. They claim to be fans of the New England Patriots, Golden State Warriors, New York Yankees, Ohio State football, and University of Kentucky basketball. They're always on the right side of history because they always root for the winner, and the winner always writes history.

Folks, democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine is that one co-worker. He's a graduate of the University of Missouri, yet roots for that school's blood rivals, the Kansas Jayhawks. But only in basketball. Tim Kaine has disavowed KU football, and rooted for Virginia Tech and Missouri football at various points in his tortured public life. This is bandwagon fandom par excellence. Tim Kaine opportunistically roots for the very successful Kansas basketball team while distancing himself from its struggling football squad. Senator Kaine, if you can't handle KU football at their worst, you don't deserve KU basketball at its best. Tim Kaine's refusal to believe in KU football is going to make him look silly come 2019 when David Beaty and the boys win the Big XII conference. Mr. Kaine, there won't be room for you on the bandwagon when that day comes.

Tim Kaine's sports rooting interests reveal a stunning lack of principle that renders him unfit to serve as vice president, a feeble Hillary Clinton heartbeat away from the presidency. Moreover, Kaine's inconsistencies points to a problem endemic to the slippery Clinton campaign. Clinton and Kaine have no deeply-held beliefs, principles, or values. They stand for nothing. How can we trust Hillary to fight for Americans on trade issues and pursue fair trade deals when she called Obama's awful TPP deal the "gold standard"? Kaine's political views have all the steadiness of a weather-vane. Just like Kaine threw Kansas football under the bus, he threw American workers on the bus by vocally supporting TPP prior to flip-flopping once he got picked as Clinton's VP.

Being a Danville man, I'm a Cincinatti Bengals fan and not a Lions fan like my dear Uncle Bert. But my Uncle Bert taught me loyalty. America needs a president and vice president who mean what they say and say what they mean. We can't afford politicians who only support teams once they're winning and only support policies once they're popular. My Uncle Bert knew this. And so does Donald Trump.

Filling Out President Trump's Cabinet

Danville, Kentucky -- With a Trump presidency looking increasingly inevitable, it's time to turn our attention to how Donald will govern once he is sworn in. Trump has a lot on his plate if he really wants to Make America Great Again. He's got to drain the swamp, and expunge the corrupt bureaucrats out of Washington. He's got to build the wall. He's got to grow the economy. He's got to get to the bottom of who killed JFK. Before he can do any of these things, he's got to fill out his cabinet. My cabinet is full of cheap whiskey and painkillers, but Donald's cabinet is much more important than mine. Donald can't afford to let career politicians take these posts. We need outsiders to shake up the corrupt status quo. Here are the people Trump should appoint to head the 15 executive departments:

Secretary of State -- Dennis Rodman

America has been losing on foreign policy for so long, folks. China is beating us. Russia is beating us. ISIS is beating us. America doesn't even win at the Olympics anymore.  The judges rigged a disqualification on the 4x100 relay team like Hillary is trying to rig this election.  An honest beer drinking woman like Hope Solo can't overcome a socialist country like Sweden while playing at Rio. We need to put a winner in charge of American diplomacy: not a wet-noodle loser like John Kerry, who has been the Secretary of State since Crooked Hillary vacated the post. One man has the necessary temperament and qualifications to put American diplomacy back on the winning track: Dennis Rodman, 5-time NBA champion and expert statesman.

Rodman is not only a winner, he has extensive diplomatic experience. The man single-handledly turned around America's disastrous relationship with the eccentric North Korean strongman Kim Jong Un. Liberal Hollywood tried to torpedo our diplomatic relationship with North Korea by releasing unfunny Seth Rogen's movie, The Interview. Luckily, Rodman used his excellent working relationship with the Kim regime to avert a second Korean war. Folks, we need to put Dennis in charge of US foreign policy writ large.

Secretary of Treasury -- Steve Forbes

For the Secretary of the Treasury, former presidential candidate Steve Forbes would be an ideal choice.  He wanted to simplify our tax code and he’d be great at simplifying how we regulate banks.  If you know the difference between a derivative and Fielding Independent Pitching, then you can go along with the nerds on the Clinton Express, but real Americans want simple.  I know you’ll say I’m going too Hollywood with Forbes, after all, he was excellent as the main vampire in The Lost Boys, but Forbes has the business chops to do the job.

Secretary of Defense -- Bobby Knight

Bobby Knight is one of the most qualified people on this list. Folks, eight years of Obama has absolutely hollowed out our nation's military. We're practically defenseless. Even though Obama called ISIS "the JV team," we're still getting our behinds kicked. I know one man who would never tolerate losing to a JV team. A man who knows a thing or two about defense. Bobby Knight.

While head coach of the Indiana Hoosiers college basketball team, he won 3 NCAA championships, 11 Big 10 titles, and was the Coach of the Year in 1987. Most importantly, Coach Knight knows a thing or two about defense. He coached some of the nastiest defenses in college hoops history, known for the tenacious man-to-man defense that his kids would play. We need a guy like Bobby in charge of our military if America is going to be great again and beat JV teams like ISIS.

Bobby didn't tolerate bullshit from his players. He won't tolerate bullshit from America's enemies either.

Attorney General -- Chris Christie 

Chris Christie, the man who coined the chant "Lock Her Up!" is one of the brightest legal minds of our generation. Under Attorney General Chris Christie we will finally be able to prosecute Crooked Hillary and bring justice back to our country.

Secretary of Interior -- Charles Barkley 

Chuck Barkley, one of the greatest power forwards in NBA history, is a man known for his strong belief in conservative principles. He also played ferocious interior defense on the basketball court. This is a perfect fit.

Secretary of Agriculture -- Buck Farmer

Buck Farmer, 25 year old right handed relief pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, is a good old Georgia boy who knows a thing or two about country-living and our nation's farms. On days where he is not required to throw 95 mile per hour gas out of Detroit's bullpen, Trump should consult him extensively on how to fix America's agricultural sector, which has suffered under the reign of urban elitist Obama. To fix America's farms, we need a Farmer in charge.

Secretary of Commerce -- Sean Hannity

Mr. Hannity -- the face of America's biggest cable news network, and host of one of America's most successful shows -- is exactly the man to turn America's broken economy around and help small businesses. Hannity has already been advising the Trump campaign; he'll be perfectly willing and able to advise Trump on economic issues once he's president.

Secretary of Labor -- Rick Snyder

Wildly successful Michigan governor Rick Snyder is the natural choice for the Secretary of Labor under the Trump presidency.  Ignore the media's shrieking about how he poisoned Flint, Michigan.  My Uncle Bert would tell you that anyone who lives in Flint hasn’t been drinking the water for years since GM closed the plants from NAFTA outsourcing. Snyder was bold in the face of rowdy union members who destroyed property and a delicious hot dog stand when they were given the freedom to opt out of their unions.

Don’t get me wrong, union jobs helped build this nation, Rick Snyder only wanted workers to be free to support them how they liked.  If a union supported a candidate in favor of the TPP, then it can only be a good thing to be able to earn the benefits of a union contract without supporting the candidates that want to slit their throats.

Secretary of Health and Human Services -- Guy Fieri

America has been getting absolutely strangled by anti-business regulations emanating from Washington. Government has to get out of the way and let entrepreneurs breath. The man to do the job is Guy Fieri, food network superstar and health expert. Guy is a man of discerning taste. He'll help Trump identify the banging eats that can fix America's health problems.

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development -- Aaron Carter

Folks, I know that pop-singing sensation Aaron Carter withdrew his endorsement of Trump. Trump might need to make a sales pitch to this kid or cut a deal with him to get him on board. But make no mistake, America needs Aaron Carter right now. Home ownership is at an all time low. Aaron can help fix that. Aaron threw a hell of a house party in the hit single "Aaron's Party (Come Get It)" back in 2000. Aaron fixed his parents' house up after his friends wrecked it in the aforementioned house party. Donald Trump, real estate guru, and Aaron are just the team to fix the housing market.

Secretary of Transportation -- Bill Mitchell

Bill Mitchell, outspoken pro-Trump twitter personality, knows all about transportation. He's been conducting the #TrumpTrain for months now! Look for Secretary of Transportation Mitchell to use his advanced knowledge of analytics and data to modernize America's outdated public transportation systems.

Secretary of Energy -- Sarah Palin

Folks, Obama's "none-of-the-above" energy policy is absolutely crushing our economy. He gave us Solyndra. He gave us EPA overreach. All in the name of fighting climate change, which we know is a hoax invented by the Chinese. Former Alaskan governor Sarah Palin will bring sanity back to US energy policy. Drill baby drill!

Secretary of Education -- Donald Trump Jr.

Folks, I'm tempted to say Trump doesn't even need a Secretary of Education. Trump has plenty of experience in education. This is the man who brought us Trump University. If he absolutely has to make an appointment, Donald Trump Jr. should be up to the job. Serving as Secretary of Education will also give Trump Jr. something nice to put on his resume when he runs for POTUS in 2024.

Secretary of Veteran Affairs -- Patricia Smith [Benghazi Mom]

Illegal immigrants receive better treatment than veterans these days. The Obama-Clinton regime has criminally neglected our country's veterans. In the interest of ensuring that America never forgets the treachery committed by Obama and Clinton at Benghazi, President Trump must appoint a Benghazi Mom to protect our country's veterans.

Secretary of Homeland Security -- Julian Assange

Julian Assange -- he of Wikileaks fame -- should be entrusted to run America's national security bureaucracy, assuming the Clinton crime syndicate hasn't assassinated him already. Julian has spent his adult life fighting America's military industrial complex. As Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, he can tear down America's murderous war machine from within.

Surgeon General -- Ben Carson

Folks, in a different election cycle Dr. Carson could've been President. The man is immaculately serene, well-mannered, and wistful. He'll end the federal government's wasteful war on vaping and cigarettes, restoring every American's autonomy over their own body. Ben Carson is proof that even an Average Joe can be a brain surgeon. This decision is, pardon my pun, a no-brainer.


Trump has his work cut out for him. The US government's agencies have become more bloated than ever with corruption, inefficiency, and professional pencil-pushers. Trump needs to appoint folks who can get things done. Folks who know how to win. Abraham Lincoln was famous for making a cabinet designed to be a "team of rivals." The Trump cabinet I have proposed is full of rivals: Barkley and Rodman, for instance, were heated adversaries on the basketball court. More importantly, Trump's cabinet will be a team of winners. With Trump at the helm, this cabinet could Make America Govern Again.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

TWTW Election Model: Update 3

Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, the election appears to have stabilized. While many observers have described this election as unprecedentedly 'volatile' or 'unpredictable,' my own tried-and-true forecasting model shows a relatively firm and uneventful race. Trump maintains a solid advantage over Crooked Hillary Clinton, just as he did in my model's first forecast and its update a few days ago. It's enough to make a man yawn. If nothing major happens to shake up the raise, we could be in for a snoozer, folks. The fundamentals of this race still lean strongly in favor of Donald no matter what you see in a FiveThirtyEight post or CNN polls.

Here's a breakdown of all the continued good news we've seen for Trump in the last media cycle:

1) The exemplary Los Angeles Times poll shows Trump maintains a comfortable lead.

2) The democrats are getting desperate.

So desperate that they're now resorting to violence, as we have seen in North Carolina, a fantastic state that is home to my favorite Golden Corral buffet restaurant.
Clinton knows the democrats are doomed, and now they're doing everything they can to intimidate honest rank-and-file Republican voters.

3) Aaron Rodgers, handsome Quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, sucks.

credit: Mike De Sisti, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Last Sunday, the Packers just suffered an embarrassing 30-16 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Skip Bayless' favorite team. To add insult to injury, the loss occurred at Green Bay's Lambeau Field, a venue known for its massive home-field advantage. Rodgers has been the least accurate passer in football. He threw only 1 touchdown and gave up yet another interception. The home crowd booed him.
Folks, the people of Wisconsin are mad. That's bad news for establishment types like Wisconsin's own Paul Ryan and Hillary Clinton, and very good news for Mr. Trump. Putting Wisconsin in Trump's column further pads his electoral lead.

4) Trump just received a big endorsement from third party candidate Jill Stein.

Getting an endorsement from someone who is technically running against you is a big deal. Stein's blessing will go a long way towards helping Donald gain traction with disgruntled Bernie Sanders voters who can't bring themselves to vote for the woman who cheated Bernie out of the nomination. That will further tilt the race in Trump's direction.

5) Julian Assange, the man behind Wikileaks, has been assassinated.

Clinton has been getting absolutely bombarded with accusations of corruption since the latest round of revelations from Wikileaks.

Clinton couldn't bear another day of Trump pounding her in the polls - so Hillary does what she always does when backed into a corner. Just like she did with Ambassador Stevens, Vince Foster, Justice Antonin Scalia, and Arnold Palmer, Hillary obviously ordered a targeted killing of Assange. He has no doubt been exterminated by the Clinton crime syndicate with ruthless efficiency. We can only speculate about how angry Clinton must've been about her campaign's internal polling numbers for her to make this decision.

6) Curt Schilling has announced he intends to run for Senate in Massachusetts. 

What further evidence do you need that Trumpism is catching on? Schilling, a beloved Boston Red Sox legend, will no doubt be one of the falling pebbles that triggers an avalanche against the establishment. Trump has inspired a new wave of outsiders to take on the corrupt Washington cartel. The tide is turning against status quo politics. Look for a big Trump win in 2016 followed by the successful candidacies of Curt Schilling, Harold Reynolds, Goose Gossage, John Rocker, Dennis Rodman, and Clint Eastwood in 2020 and 2024. 

7. Sean Hannity's ratings are skyrocketing

Folks, Sean is one of the last good men on television. He's honest, frank, and never pulls any punches. He's also the only guy on TV without a vendetta against Donald. The fact that his ratings are doing so unbelievably well provides further evidence that America is ready for Trump.

8. Trump Crushed the Final Debate

Trump drove the nail into HRC's body double's coffin. All the best polls show viewers thought Trump won. Hillary was low energy and got caught in multiple lies, unlike cool, calm, collected, rational, and well-reasoned Donald.


The liberals in charge of crooked outlets like the New York Times and Saturday Night Live want you to look at cherry-picked numbers, like one single teency-weency poll showing Donald trailing by 11 points, or Donald's sky-high un-favorability numbers. By reducing the election to just a couple of numbers on a spreadsheet, these phony pundits miss the forest for the trees. The TWTW model takes a much more rigorous and holistic look at the fundamentals of the election. We leave no stone un-turned, analyzing a broad array of indicators like: sports trends, endorsements, chicken wing prices, and the overall 'mood' of the country. My much more objective analysis predicts a comfortable Trump victory over Crooked Hillary come November 8th.

The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart. The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Boys to Men: The Julio Urias Story

Danville, Kentucky -- Times of hardship forge bonds of fellowship. Adversity can be a crucible, fashioning ties stronger than steel. In war, your fellow soldiers are your brothers. Crouching in a muddy foxhole as artillery thunders loudly inches from your prone, bloodied body, your companions are your only refuge.

So it is war, so it is in baseball. The Los Angeles Dodgers have not seen the foxholes of Belgium, but they are nonetheless a rag-tag band of brothers. The 2016 Dodgers perfectly embody America's "Melting Pot" ideal. The pure chemistry this team shows is enough to make you forget they have a $200+ million dollar payroll and are the subject of a Molly Knight book. The team is a veritable multicultural hodge podge of superstars and gritty role-players, gelling together as one seamless unit. Take a look at some of this team's impact players. There's Clayton Kershaw, Cy Young, ace, unquestioned leader, and emotional bedrock of team. Rich Hill, a 36 year-old journeyman and finesse-pitching maestro. Adrian Gonzalez, 34 year-old clutch-hitting slugger, who with each timely knock makes a case for being the Kirk Gibson of this year's Dodger team. Joe Blanton, 35 year-old comeback kid and relief ace. Kenta Maeda, a 28 year-old Japanese rookie. Yasiel Puig, Cuban superstar turned headcase turned superstar again after a trip to AAA Oklahoma City. Thanks to this melting pot of stars and scrubs, the Dodgers are doing what nobody thought they could: beating the Cubbies in the NLCS.

But folks, no player's contributions to this team have been more improbable than that of 20 year lefty Julio Urias of Culiac├ín, Mexico. He debuted at age 19 earlier in the 2016 season. He entered the 2016 postseason a boy: he left the pivotal Game 5 of the National League Divisional Series a man.

In times of war, boys lose their innocence. They do things that go against the teachings of their Sunday school teacher and the bible. They experience a trial by fire, and endure or perish. Julio Urias had his trial by fire, and he came out stronger.

At age 20, I was unemployed and trying to make cash by stealing parts from cars parked outside the local movie theater at night. At age 20, Urias was putting his name on the wall alongside other October legends. Little Julio Urias was not young enough to legally drink the celebratory champagne being popped in the Dodgers clubhouse after defeating the Washington Nationals in NLDS Game 5, but nonetheless threw 2 gutsy shutout innings in that game en route to becoming the youngest pitcher in MLB history to earn a win in a postseason game.

In Game 4 of the National League Championship Series, young Julio Urias will meet his mirror opposite: grisly postseason stalwart John Lackey of the Chicago Cubs. At age 37, Lackey already has two World Series titles to his name in addition to expansive postseason experience. Julio Urias hits mid to upper nineties with an electric fastball; Lackey usually sits in the low nineties with excellent command, unafraid to pitch to contact with the flashy Cubs defense behind him. Urias has an unassuming, boyish look about him, standing 6′ 0″ tall. John Lackey stands 6′ 6″ tall and resembles a crazed, murderous woodsman that you might encounter in a horror movie.

John Lackey: a perfect foil to Julio Urias
It would be easy to pick the Cubs to win this game. John Lackey has come up big in October time in and time out. Julio has pitched a total of two postseason innings in his nascent career. But the kid learns fast. In his first game against the Cubs on June 2nd, Julio went 5 innings and gave up 5 runs, including 3 home runs. In his next start against the Cubbies on August 27th, he went 6 innings and allowed 1 run. But here's the catch, folks: he was a boy then, and he's a man now. Nobody would blame you for penciling in a Cubs win when a 37 year-old bear of a veteran gets to face off against a 20 year-old rookie. But this isn't any 20 year-old: he's already pitched in higher leverage spots than some men ever will. I believe in the American melting pot experiment. I believe in Julio Urias.

Monday, October 17, 2016

It's A Trap! Trump Must Boycott the Final Debate

Danville, Kentucky -- It's been said that discretion is the better part of valor. My second divorce lawyer told me this whenever I'd float one of my hair-brained schemes to kidnap my children and start a new life in Olean, a quaint town in rural New York near the Pennsylvania border. In fight-or-flight situations, the impulse to run away is often dismissed as cowardly. Folks, I'm never one to back down from a fight. But when the fight is rigged, you'd be a fool to enter the ring.

That's the lesson Trump has learned after two debates with Crooked Hillary Clinton. Don't get me wrong: Trump nailed both debates. The best polls confirm that Trump knocked the first two Clinton-Trump confrontations out of the ballpark like a hanging Joe Blanton slider.

Yet, Trump would be a fool to give Hillary a third bite at the apple. Trump won the first two debates in spite of a massive conspiracy to disadvantage him. Winning the third debate will be an uphill battle, especially with the Clinton crime syndicate more resolved than ever to thwart him. The debate simply won't be on a level playing field. Let's look at all the ways the mainstream media cartel will try to cheat Trump out of a debate victory:

1) BODY DOUBLES. Crooked Hillary has 'em, and I outlined the incontrovertible evidence behind this theory in an article you can read by clicking here. Trump doesn't even know which Hillary Clinton he'll have to debate: the deathly ill, weakened one, or the imposter that has been masquerading as her since this summer. In a fair match-up, Trump would crush the hobbled and fading Hillary. But Trump likely won't be debating the real Hillary. He'll be debating a laboratory-bred imitator with superior stamina and poise. All the more reason for Donald to opt out.

2) MEDIA BIAS. A bombshell email uncovered by Wikileaks showed that the media has colluded with the Clinton campaign to give her an unfair advantage in the debates.
Folks, this flies in the spirit of fairness and competitive equity. Unfortunately, Trump will be at even greater danger of being cheated in the next debate, which is to be hosted by Trump's mortal enemies at Fox News, the home of Megyn Kelly.

Fox News and the mainstream RINOs like Bill O'Reilly hate Trump and are now actively rooting for Hillary. Fox News has no doubt already tipped the Clinton campaign off about the questions ahead of time. Hillary's body double is probably preparing scripted answers to all the questions as we speak. Donald should refuse to debate unless Alex Jones of InfoWars and Milo Yiannopoulos of Breitbart are named moderators. Trump: don't play her game if the game ain't fair.

3) PREPAREDNESS. Folks, Clinton is a nerd. Like a goodie-two-shoe student trying to get top marks in a high school class, she's always studying and preparing while cool guys like Trump are grabbing life by the...horns. The liberal media will always rave about Hillary's over-polished and canned responses, while failing to appreciate Trump's impromptu bombast and gusto. Until the media changes the format of the debates to reward blustering bullies like Donald, he should boycott them.


Crooked Hillary is a filthy hypocrite. You just know she'd be the type to say Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez don't belong in the Hall of Fame because they injected the substances necessary to take their game to the next level. Yet, Hillary's body double was jacked up on all types of stimulants and uppers in the second debate; it's so obvious, folks. She started the debate brimming with energy and then fizzled out as the debate went on, which is behavior you'd expect from someone who has just snorted a few lines of crushed up Adderall. Next time, she'll probably take a higher dosage of whatever Super-Amphetamine she's on so that the high lasts for the entire debate. Unless Hillary's body double submits herself to a drug test, Donald should refuse to debate.


Folks, there's no dishonor in refusing to play a rigged game. Trump shouldn't feel any pressure to attend the debate anyway since all the important indicators point to a massive #Trumpslide victory. I never did kidnap my children and start a new life, because there isn't a Chili's or Buffalo Wild Wings nearby Olean. But you can damn well bet I considered it. Donald doesn't need to think nearly as hard about the choice before him. It's a no brainer. If Clinton won't play by the rules and forswear body doubles, collusion, preparation, and performance enhancing drugs, Trump shouldn't player her rigged game.

Friday, October 14, 2016

Worth Waiting For: TWTW's Kansas @ Baylor Preview

Danville, Kentucky - Some things in life are worth waiting for. As youth we demand instant gratification: we want it all, and we want it now. Steadiness and patience do not come naturally. They are only learned after one has endured the trudging procession of the years, after one has felt the pain that comes with bidding childhood farewell and greeting an adult life of burdensome responsibility.

Sometimes, patience -- that certain willingness to delay gratification in hopes of holding out for long-term resolution and catharsis -- can give way to resignation. In October of 2012, I was just as frustrated as any fan of the Cincinnati Reds after my team blew a 2-0 lead in the NLDS to the villainous San Francisco Giants. I was even more heartbroken the following year in 2013 when they lost in the Wild Card game to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Reds manager Dusty Baker was fired after that disastrous game. Little did I know that I was witnessing the end of an era: the closing of a window of contention, the beginning of a long winter of discontent and Jack Daniels. The Reds did not make the playoffs in 2014, 2015, or 2016. I patiently await the return of Reds baseball from my usual booth in the Lexington Chili's I've become so fond of. 

In my rasher moments I thought about going on hunger strike until the Reds re-hired Dusty Baker and won the National League pennant. After 3 days of hunger-striking at Chili's, I decided I liked the taste of Dr. Pepper BBQ Ribs too much and broke down. I'm not the best at delaying gratification, not when it comes to sports, and not when it comes to food.

Waiter, can I substitute fried pickles for broccoli, please?
Fans of Kansas football are no strangers to delayed gratification. Dark times have fallen on a once proud program, a program that won an Orange Bowl in the twilight of the Bush administration. KU football has lost 40 straight games away from the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium, and is inching dangerously close to the all-time record (44 consecutive road losses, set by Western State in Gunnison, Colo. from 1926-1936). They last won a road game in 2009; when the Phillies were defending World Series champions and Taylor Swift was a country singer. 

Faithful fans of KU's football team -- they are so rare these days, folks -- have waited, and waited, for the revived relevance of their program. KU football fans -- those rare, elusive specimens -- have watched the basketball team continually climb to the summit of NCAA glory, and wondered when it will be the football team's turn. They have waited and waited for the thrill of excitement in the cool Autumn air. For the smell of crisp leaves, cold grass, and sweat on the air. They have waited, and waited, and been told to "trust the process" by decent but flawed men like David Beaty. The true fans still wait in the all-too-empty bleachers of Memorial Stadium, waiting for the team to show a pulse.

They may have to wait just a little bit longer, folks. They face a formidable opponent this weekend: the mighty Baylor Bears (5-0, 1st in Big 12 conference), fearsome defenders of McLane Stadium in fabulous Waco, Texas. Folks, Waco is a hell of a town, once you get passed the apocalyptic cults. Kenneth Star is a good man, who has helped to expose many of Crooked Hillary's wrongdoings. One map sums up why I love Waco:

Folks, that's Waco's 'Fast Food Mecca.' I have made the pilgrimage once. Have you ever seen so many alluring eateries in such a compacted physical space? Folks, it gets even better than this map would lead you to believe. There's a Chic-Fil-AFreddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers, and no less than 3 Raising Cane's nestled into this neighborhood as well. And the true beauty: it's all right across the street from Baylor's gorgeous campus. Fazoli's and Long John Silver's within walking distance of a quality higher education degree? I have no interest in higher education, but somebody run to Fazoli's and tell them to get an order of breadsticks ready!

The lesson for KU football? Some things in life are worth waiting for, and KU football is one of those things. Baylor-quality football programs and Baylor-quality fast-food neighborhoods aren't made overnight. Once upon a time, Baylor's heavenly Fast Food Mecca was just a lowly McDonald's and a gas station located across the street from a random college campus. But given time, perseverance, and love, an entire portfolio of delicious dining options blossomed before our eyes. One day, KU football will blossom as well. And when that day comes, there will be plenty of room on the bandwagon. 

TWTW Election Model: Update 2

Danville, Kentucky - Folks, it's been a great week for Trump. He's totally owned the media cycle (no publicity is bad publicity!) and is absolutely sky-rocketing in the most important polls, including my own forecasting model.

Before we dive into my own proprietary data, let's take a look at all of the great things that happened for Trump in the past week:
Rasmussen poll as of October 14th 
  • As of writing this, Nate Silver's failed algorithm over at FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary an 84% chance of winning; this is what we in the sports gambling business like to dub a "reverse-lock." 
  • Trump has finally cut off deadweight by disavowing traitors within the Republican party. Paul Ryan and the establishment RINOs were just dragging him down. Now that Trump has thrown off his shackles, he's going to rise to the top.
  • New economic data is out, and it doesn't look good for Hillary and Obama. Buffalo Wild Wings stocks plummeted by 13% in September. Folks are eating less buffalo wings these days as chicken prices continue to climb upwards. Solid political science research has demonstrated that chicken-wing consumption is a key barometer of economic health and consumer confidence in the economy. America losing its appetite for delicious wings, appetizers, and huge TVs is a bad sign for Hillary Clinton. Clinton needs voters to feel optimistic about the state of the economic recovery, as she has linked herself to Obama's economic policies. Bad economic news, especially about a beloved American classic like Buffalo Wild Wings, is bad news for Clinton and good news for Trump, who has promised to restore America's once great fried chicken industry.
[Source: Motley Fool]
But folks, these stories don't even scratch the surface of why Trump had one of his best weeks of the campaign. After crushing Clinton in the second debate, Trump has rallied his base and generated unprecedented enthusiasm. Some highly-generalizable anecdotes confirm this trend:
The most compelling evidence of Trump's surge toward the finish-line comes from a comparison of rally sizes. Despite the media doing their best effort to exaggerate enthusiasm for her candidacy, Clinton rallies have been laughably small.

 Folks, I've seen larger groups of people congregate in front of my local Little Caesars. The fact is, Trump has been crushing Hillary when it comes to rally sizes.
Statistical attendance break-downs are just plain ugly for Secretary Clinton.
Naturally, the liberal media jumped at the opportunity to hype Hillary's rallies when news broke that she was speaking at Ohio State University. Once again, the enthusiasm was proven to be fake.
 A quick eye-test of some photographs of the rallies reveals even more manipulation and lies.

That's right. My deep forensic analysis of this photograph of Clinton's Ohio State rally reveals some startling findings. Clinton has been inflating the size of her rallies by filling the crowd with PAID ACTORS, AMNESTIED SYRIAN REFUGEES, and FAKE COMPUTER GENERATED PEOPLE.

Don't believe the media folks, Trump is generating way more excitement than boring, crooked Hillary. Elections are about turning out your base. Hillary has no base: only mercenaries, refugees, and computer tricks. The Trump campaign is in cruise control as we head to the November 8th finale.

The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart. The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.

Little Cowboys and Indians: the American League's Last Hope

Danville, Kentucky - Los Angeles, North Side Chicago, Cleveland. These are the cities with which we are to defend America from the Toronto Blue Jays, an upstart Canadian team that threatens to usurp America's past-time. It's not the set of cities I would've chosen were I to be tasked with selecting a club to serve as a bulwark against aggression from America's northern front. Los Angeles has grown opulent and soft in its self-adoration and dotage. The North Side of Chicago is inhabited mostly by affluent prep school kids. Cleveland has only recently learned how to win. These three cities do not inspire much confidence in America's ability to defeat Canada.

Their Canadian opponent is formidable. There is much to like about this Blue Jays team. I've been enamored with them for a few seasons now. They hit bombs. They play the game with passion: whether it's Josh Donaldson scoring the game-winning run on a mad dash to home plate on a throwing error, Kevin Pillar imitating Superman as he puts his body on the line diving for a deep fly-ball, Jose Bautista's bodacious bat flips, or Edwin Encarnacion flaunting an avian companion as he performs his customary trot around the base-paths after a dinger. Though they play for Canada, a country known for its modesty, humility, and good manners, these Blue Jays conduct themselves with a distinctively American swagger.

And yet, something is rotten in the province of Ontario. This is a team that refuses to let Cy Young winner and knuckleball virtuoso R.A. Dickey pitch in the playoffs. The hardened veteran won 20 games in 2012 and threw 200+ innings for 5 straight years, but is evidently not to be trusted as the team flirts with Toronto's first World Series title since Kurt Cobain was the most popular man in music. The team's abysmal mishandling of ace R.A. Dickey casts doubt on their worthiness of October glory.

The Blue Jays have betrayed R.A. Dickey, and must be stopped from winning the World Series. If you need another reason to fear the Blue Jays, consider known Canadian and JFK conspirator Ted Cruz: he will undoubtedly be rooting for his motherland's team. America is in a time of unprecedented political division, thanks to Hillary Clinton. America cannot now afford to lose to a commonwealth of the British crown. Allowing a team from a French-speaking nation to win THE AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES would deal an irreversible blow to American pride, prestige, self-confidence, and hegemony, guaranteeing 'another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange.' 

Only one man can stop the Toronto Blue Jays from obliterating the American-led international order and ushering in an era of Canadian dominance in the Northern Hemisphere: Josh Tomlin. 

Josh Tomlin may play for the Indians, but he's known as the Little Cowboy. It is only fitting that the man tasked with defending our favorite sport from Canadian conquistadors is nicknamed after the brave wranglers who brought American ruggedness to the uncivilized Western frontiers. More importantly, this is a man fit for the job. Canadian culture is one of dependence and sloth, thanks to their extensive European-style welfare state and socialized healthcare. Canadians love free stuff, and the Blue Jays are no different. The power-hitting prowess of the Blue Jays is real, but the Cleveland Indians can defeat them by refusing to give these Canadians the free stuff they have come to expect from big government. The Indians must be stingy: no walks, no free bases. Stinginess is a foreign concept to Canadians. 

Fortunately, stinginess is not a foreign concept to our friend Mr. Tomlin, a man that posted a sterling 13-9 win/loss record in 2016. He's fresh off of a gutsy outing against Boston in the ALCS where he allowed only 2 runs over 5 innings, notching his first ever post-season win. Tomlin pitched 174 innings this season, and unintentionally walked only 20 batters. If the Blue Jays are going to beat Tomlin, they'll have to earn it: having to earn and work for things instead of being gifted them by big government is a Canadian's worst fear. The inconsistent and distracted Trevor Bauer cannot defeat the Canadian menace. Neither can Corey Kluber and his pristine xFIP. Only Josh Tomlin can.

America has repelled invasions from our despotic, syrup-slurping Northern neighbors before, as recently as the War of 1812. We have met every challenge and conquered every adversary. The city of Cleveland already saved America once this year by stemming the tide of Steph Curry's Left-Coast Warriors. With the world watching and America's reputation on the line, Cleveland will valiantly preserve our union once more.