Friday, October 14, 2016

TWTW Election Model: Update 2

Danville, Kentucky - Folks, it's been a great week for Trump. He's totally owned the media cycle (no publicity is bad publicity!) and is absolutely sky-rocketing in the most important polls, including my own forecasting model.

Before we dive into my own proprietary data, let's take a look at all of the great things that happened for Trump in the past week:
Rasmussen poll as of October 14th 
  • As of writing this, Nate Silver's failed algorithm over at FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary an 84% chance of winning; this is what we in the sports gambling business like to dub a "reverse-lock." 
  • Trump has finally cut off deadweight by disavowing traitors within the Republican party. Paul Ryan and the establishment RINOs were just dragging him down. Now that Trump has thrown off his shackles, he's going to rise to the top.
  • New economic data is out, and it doesn't look good for Hillary and Obama. Buffalo Wild Wings stocks plummeted by 13% in September. Folks are eating less buffalo wings these days as chicken prices continue to climb upwards. Solid political science research has demonstrated that chicken-wing consumption is a key barometer of economic health and consumer confidence in the economy. America losing its appetite for delicious wings, appetizers, and huge TVs is a bad sign for Hillary Clinton. Clinton needs voters to feel optimistic about the state of the economic recovery, as she has linked herself to Obama's economic policies. Bad economic news, especially about a beloved American classic like Buffalo Wild Wings, is bad news for Clinton and good news for Trump, who has promised to restore America's once great fried chicken industry.
[Source: Motley Fool]
But folks, these stories don't even scratch the surface of why Trump had one of his best weeks of the campaign. After crushing Clinton in the second debate, Trump has rallied his base and generated unprecedented enthusiasm. Some highly-generalizable anecdotes confirm this trend:
The most compelling evidence of Trump's surge toward the finish-line comes from a comparison of rally sizes. Despite the media doing their best effort to exaggerate enthusiasm for her candidacy, Clinton rallies have been laughably small.

 Folks, I've seen larger groups of people congregate in front of my local Little Caesars. The fact is, Trump has been crushing Hillary when it comes to rally sizes.
Statistical attendance break-downs are just plain ugly for Secretary Clinton.
Naturally, the liberal media jumped at the opportunity to hype Hillary's rallies when news broke that she was speaking at Ohio State University. Once again, the enthusiasm was proven to be fake.
 A quick eye-test of some photographs of the rallies reveals even more manipulation and lies.

That's right. My deep forensic analysis of this photograph of Clinton's Ohio State rally reveals some startling findings. Clinton has been inflating the size of her rallies by filling the crowd with PAID ACTORS, AMNESTIED SYRIAN REFUGEES, and FAKE COMPUTER GENERATED PEOPLE.

Don't believe the media folks, Trump is generating way more excitement than boring, crooked Hillary. Elections are about turning out your base. Hillary has no base: only mercenaries, refugees, and computer tricks. The Trump campaign is in cruise control as we head to the November 8th finale.

The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart. The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.