Showing posts with label Nate Silver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nate Silver. Show all posts

Thursday, October 20, 2016

TWTW Election Model: Update 3


Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, the election appears to have stabilized. While many observers have described this election as unprecedentedly 'volatile' or 'unpredictable,' my own tried-and-true forecasting model shows a relatively firm and uneventful race. Trump maintains a solid advantage over Crooked Hillary Clinton, just as he did in my model's first forecast and its update a few days ago. It's enough to make a man yawn. If nothing major happens to shake up the raise, we could be in for a snoozer, folks. The fundamentals of this race still lean strongly in favor of Donald no matter what you see in a FiveThirtyEight post or CNN polls.

Here's a breakdown of all the continued good news we've seen for Trump in the last media cycle:

1) The exemplary Los Angeles Times poll shows Trump maintains a comfortable lead.


[source]

2) The democrats are getting desperate.

So desperate that they're now resorting to violence, as we have seen in North Carolina, a fantastic state that is home to my favorite Golden Corral buffet restaurant.
Clinton knows the democrats are doomed, and now they're doing everything they can to intimidate honest rank-and-file Republican voters.

3) Aaron Rodgers, handsome Quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, sucks.


credit: Mike De Sisti, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Last Sunday, the Packers just suffered an embarrassing 30-16 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Skip Bayless' favorite team. To add insult to injury, the loss occurred at Green Bay's Lambeau Field, a venue known for its massive home-field advantage. Rodgers has been the least accurate passer in football. He threw only 1 touchdown and gave up yet another interception. The home crowd booed him.
Folks, the people of Wisconsin are mad. That's bad news for establishment types like Wisconsin's own Paul Ryan and Hillary Clinton, and very good news for Mr. Trump. Putting Wisconsin in Trump's column further pads his electoral lead.

4) Trump just received a big endorsement from third party candidate Jill Stein.



Getting an endorsement from someone who is technically running against you is a big deal. Stein's blessing will go a long way towards helping Donald gain traction with disgruntled Bernie Sanders voters who can't bring themselves to vote for the woman who cheated Bernie out of the nomination. That will further tilt the race in Trump's direction.

5) Julian Assange, the man behind Wikileaks, has been assassinated.

Clinton has been getting absolutely bombarded with accusations of corruption since the latest round of revelations from Wikileaks.


Clinton couldn't bear another day of Trump pounding her in the polls - so Hillary does what she always does when backed into a corner. Just like she did with Ambassador Stevens, Vince Foster, Justice Antonin Scalia, and Arnold Palmer, Hillary obviously ordered a targeted killing of Assange. He has no doubt been exterminated by the Clinton crime syndicate with ruthless efficiency. We can only speculate about how angry Clinton must've been about her campaign's internal polling numbers for her to make this decision.

6) Curt Schilling has announced he intends to run for Senate in Massachusetts. 


What further evidence do you need that Trumpism is catching on? Schilling, a beloved Boston Red Sox legend, will no doubt be one of the falling pebbles that triggers an avalanche against the establishment. Trump has inspired a new wave of outsiders to take on the corrupt Washington cartel. The tide is turning against status quo politics. Look for a big Trump win in 2016 followed by the successful candidacies of Curt Schilling, Harold Reynolds, Goose Gossage, John Rocker, Dennis Rodman, and Clint Eastwood in 2020 and 2024. 

7. Sean Hannity's ratings are skyrocketing

Folks, Sean is one of the last good men on television. He's honest, frank, and never pulls any punches. He's also the only guy on TV without a vendetta against Donald. The fact that his ratings are doing so unbelievably well provides further evidence that America is ready for Trump.

8. Trump Crushed the Final Debate

Trump drove the nail into HRC's body double's coffin. All the best polls show viewers thought Trump won. Hillary was low energy and got caught in multiple lies, unlike cool, calm, collected, rational, and well-reasoned Donald.


CONCLUSION

The liberals in charge of crooked outlets like the New York Times and Saturday Night Live want you to look at cherry-picked numbers, like one single teency-weency poll showing Donald trailing by 11 points, or Donald's sky-high un-favorability numbers. By reducing the election to just a couple of numbers on a spreadsheet, these phony pundits miss the forest for the trees. The TWTW model takes a much more rigorous and holistic look at the fundamentals of the election. We leave no stone un-turned, analyzing a broad array of indicators like: sports trends, endorsements, chicken wing prices, and the overall 'mood' of the country. My much more objective analysis predicts a comfortable Trump victory over Crooked Hillary come November 8th.

The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart. The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.
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Location: Danville, KY, USA

Friday, October 14, 2016

TWTW Election Model: Update 2


Danville, Kentucky - Folks, it's been a great week for Trump. He's totally owned the media cycle (no publicity is bad publicity!) and is absolutely sky-rocketing in the most important polls, including my own forecasting model.

Before we dive into my own proprietary data, let's take a look at all of the great things that happened for Trump in the past week:
Rasmussen poll as of October 14th 
  • As of writing this, Nate Silver's failed algorithm over at FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary an 84% chance of winning; this is what we in the sports gambling business like to dub a "reverse-lock." 
  • Trump has finally cut off deadweight by disavowing traitors within the Republican party. Paul Ryan and the establishment RINOs were just dragging him down. Now that Trump has thrown off his shackles, he's going to rise to the top.
  • New economic data is out, and it doesn't look good for Hillary and Obama. Buffalo Wild Wings stocks plummeted by 13% in September. Folks are eating less buffalo wings these days as chicken prices continue to climb upwards. Solid political science research has demonstrated that chicken-wing consumption is a key barometer of economic health and consumer confidence in the economy. America losing its appetite for delicious wings, appetizers, and huge TVs is a bad sign for Hillary Clinton. Clinton needs voters to feel optimistic about the state of the economic recovery, as she has linked herself to Obama's economic policies. Bad economic news, especially about a beloved American classic like Buffalo Wild Wings, is bad news for Clinton and good news for Trump, who has promised to restore America's once great fried chicken industry.
[Source: Motley Fool]
But folks, these stories don't even scratch the surface of why Trump had one of his best weeks of the campaign. After crushing Clinton in the second debate, Trump has rallied his base and generated unprecedented enthusiasm. Some highly-generalizable anecdotes confirm this trend:
The most compelling evidence of Trump's surge toward the finish-line comes from a comparison of rally sizes. Despite the media doing their best effort to exaggerate enthusiasm for her candidacy, Clinton rallies have been laughably small.


 Folks, I've seen larger groups of people congregate in front of my local Little Caesars. The fact is, Trump has been crushing Hillary when it comes to rally sizes.
Statistical attendance break-downs are just plain ugly for Secretary Clinton.
Naturally, the liberal media jumped at the opportunity to hype Hillary's rallies when news broke that she was speaking at Ohio State University. Once again, the enthusiasm was proven to be fake.
 A quick eye-test of some photographs of the rallies reveals even more manipulation and lies.


That's right. My deep forensic analysis of this photograph of Clinton's Ohio State rally reveals some startling findings. Clinton has been inflating the size of her rallies by filling the crowd with PAID ACTORS, AMNESTIED SYRIAN REFUGEES, and FAKE COMPUTER GENERATED PEOPLE.

Don't believe the media folks, Trump is generating way more excitement than boring, crooked Hillary. Elections are about turning out your base. Hillary has no base: only mercenaries, refugees, and computer tricks. The Trump campaign is in cruise control as we head to the November 8th finale.

The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart. The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.
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Location: Danville, KY, USA

Friday, October 7, 2016

The TWTW Election Model: Trump's Path to 270


Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, I know a winner when I see one. Since I started this little old blog a few years ago, I've demonstrated my prowess at predicting the outcomes of political and sporting events alike. Here's a quick recap of correct predictions I've made:
Folks, that's a better track record of successful predictions than any nerd like Nate Silver, and I did it all without putting you to sleep with graphs, forecasts, and disclaimers about the "margin of error." I don't have a crystal ball, just impeccable intuition.

Now, I'm ready to make a new prediction. Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. It took digging into the data, some un-skewing, and a hard look at the fundamentals of this volatile race, but my conclusions are iron-clad, as iron-clad as the industrial metal factories that once littered the Rust Belt before the dark days of NAFTA and Hillarycare.

Pictured below is how the electoral map will more or less shake out. The key "tipping point" states: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Trump will lose some electoral votes out on the amoral secular East and West coasts of our country, but perform solidly in the states that Hillary's corporate donors condescendingly refer to as "fly-over country." The Rust Belt states that have been left behind by globalization and the continued atrophy of Blockbuster Video jobs will propel Trump to a decisive victory.


In what follows, I will break the map down state-by-state to show you how Trump will pull off the greatest upset in political history.

Nevada (6) -- Hillary

My projection system is willing to concede Nevada to Hillary while still confidently predicting an overall Trump win. Why? Nevada is populated mostly by godless heathens who enjoy gambling, prostitution, and illicit drug use. Nevada is a state full of two kinds of people: voyeuristic thrill-seekers with addiction-prone personalities, and hard-working folks employed at casinos and brothels so that these thrills are possible in the first place. The latter category of people will overwhelmingly vote for Trump but won't be able to make it to the polls, as they will be too busy cleaning up the messes and bodily fluids of Hillary's supporters in Nevada. Because of this, I anticipate low turnout from the Trump crowd, flipping Nevada to Clinton.

Colorado (9) -- Hillary

Colorado will go to Clinton for similar reasons. It is hard to see a state that legalized marijuana voting for Trump, a man that has promised to bring work-ethic back to America after 8 years of democratic malaise and indolence. Meanwhile, a recent poll of registered voters shows 61% of Colorado residents believe pot legalization has had a positive impact on their state. There's no hope for these people, folks.

Arizona (11) -- Trump

Trump is a lock in Arizona. The folks of Arizona witness the chaos of America's broken borders firsthand on a day-to-day basis. They know we need the wall, and they want Trump on that wall. They know about the massive Keynesian economic stimulus that building the wall will bring to their state. Arizona is tired of politically-correct losers like John McCain who can't get Obamacare repealed and are afraid of launching a full Congressional investigation into Hillary's body double. They're ready for Trump.

Iowa (6) -- Trump

Expect Trump to eke out Iowa in a nail-biter. Expect Crooked Hillary to perform well with the spoiled college students of Iowa City and Ames. Expect Donald to perform better with the beautiful state's forgotten rural areas, where the hard-working folks who farm our nation's corn, soybeans and pork make their living off the land. Iowa's humble farmers want to bring agriculture jobs back to their home state, and they know Trump is the man to do it. The polls show it. A completely representative and not cherry-picked poll from Dubuque, Iowa's Loras College found that:
A clear majority (57 percent) of likely voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with less than a third of respondents (28 percent) indicating they believe the country is on the right track.[source]
Iowans who hail from quiet towns like Aplington, Malvern, and Mount Sterling are furious. They're pessimistic about the direction of the country under President Obama and his cronies Clinton and Kaine. Why? Because the continued automation of agriculture jobs is hurting their pocketbooks and their job prospects. Iowans have no love for robots, or for robot-loving politicians like Hillary Clinton. Iowan farmhands who fear losing their jobs to automation will never trust a woman who used computers to email on the job and supported Obama's unconstitutional drone war. Put your money on Trump to come up big in the Hawkeye State.

Wisconsin (10) -- Trump

Wisconsin is a perfect fit for Trump. I've written about that here. Wisconsin is overwhelmingly preoccupied on a single issue: the future of their public educational system, with polls showing that education is at the forefront of every Wisconsin voter's mind [source].


Thanks to Scott Walker and Paul Ryan's austerity agenda, Wisconsin's public schools have been devastated. Teacher strikes and protests are a constant fixture in Wisconsin these days, due to the failure of Walker and Ryan's brand of conservatism. Wisconsin wants a man with a strong background in education, who can turn the decline of the state's schools around. Fortunately, Trump is a man with strong credentials on education. Folks of Wisconsin will be aware of the wild success of Trump University. They know that an outsider's perspective is needed to Make Our Public Schools Great Again. Wisconsin leans firmly in Trump's favor.

Michigan (16) -- Trump


This prediction is going to make the nerds laugh out loud. As of writing this article, Nate Silver's math machine overwhelmingly predicts that Clinton will carry Michigan.


However, let's not forget the last time Nate Silver made a prediction about Michigan.


That's right: old Nate gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning the Michigan Democratic primary, which turned out to be an epic Bernie Sanders victory.

Folks, Nate Silver is about to be wrong about Michigan all over again. You couldn't build a state more favorable to Trump than Michigan. Folks want their auto jobs back. They have born witness to the dangers of illegal Canadian immigration and love Trump's hard-nosed deportation policies.

More importantly, two factors lead me to place Michigan comfortably in Trump's column.

First, Michigan is experiencing an influx of Chic-fil-A restaurants. That bodes well for Trump. Liberals despise Chic-fil-A for not adhering to the globalist, politically-correct, anti-Christian consensus of the modern left. The fact that this beloved chicken franchise is taking root in a formerly blue state shows that Hillary can't get overconfident here.

Second, Trump has received some key endorsements from important figures in Michigan culture. Tom Brady, Michigan Man and Wolverine legend, said "it would be great" if Trump became president. Jim Harbaugh, by far the most popular man in the entire state, praised Trump for not being afraid "to fight the establishment" [source]. Here's a chart that visualizes my own proprietary polling data on the favorability of Brady and Harbaugh relative to Hillary:


As you can see, Trump is poised to benefit from a huge polling bounce in Michigan thanks to his popular surrogates, Brady and Harbaugh. Take it to the bank: Trump will win the Mitten State.

Ohio (18) -- Trump


As a Danville native, I'm familiar with the cultural climate of neighboring Ohio. Now that Cleveland's Cavaliers and Indians have gotten a taste of winning, the state of Ohio is ready move on to the main course by hopping aboard the Trump Train. Yet, all is not well in the state of LeBron. Ohio-area Big Boy restaurants have taken a beating over the years since the departure of jobs from NAFTA. You can't even order a Swiss Miss without a tear falling onto the rye bun these days.


Fortunately for Ohioans, a centerpiece of Trump's economic plan is to revitalize our nation's family-friendly dining experience. Trump has proposed a wave of Trump tariffs to be imposed on foreign competitors like Mexico and China. This plan would ensure that Big Boy will once again be protected from cheap foreign competitors like Chipotle. Trump will ride this economic plan to a crucial victory in Ohio.

Pennsylvania (20) -- Trump

Multiple indicators point to a Trump win in Pennsylvania, a pivotal state that Clinton needs to win. Pennsylvania is a state that is down on it's luck: the Philadelphia Phillies and Philadelphia 76ers were both bottom-dwelling last-place teams this season, with the Eagles and Flyers not giving much reason for optimism either. The city has hit rock bottom. The hard-working people of Philly know that America needs a new direction. They'll go for Trump.

Florida (29) -- Trump

For many years, the good folks in sunny Florida have been cursed with Rick Scott, a sickly looking RINO governor that resembles Michael Stipe. The last thing they want is a sickly and diseased President Hillary Clinton, who is very secretive about her numerous grave medical conditions. Florida wants a man who embodies vitality, vigor, energy, and dynamism. They want Trump.

CONCLUSION

The TWTW Election Model draws upon a robust selection of anecdotes spanning across a number of fields. The 538 model doesn't give you the whole picture, folks. Most mainstream election forecasts rely on telephone polls, which are notoriously unreliable insofar as they over-sample Americans who own government-subsidized Obamaphones. The TWTW model on the other hand, utilizes contextual factors unique to each state (like the favorability of athletes or the presence of certain fried chicken franchises). The broad array of indicators surveyed here lead me to predict a Trump victory with the utmost confidence. Come November, the TWTW model will be vindicated while Nate Silver's incompetence is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, once and for all.
The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart.  The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.  
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