TWTW Election Model: Update 2

Danville, Kentucky - Folks, it's been a great week for Trump. He's totally owned the media cycle (no publicity is bad publicity!) and is absolutely sky-rocketing in the most important polls, including my own forecasting model.

Before we dive into my own proprietary data, let's take a look at all of the great things that happened for Trump in the past week:

• Donald has a commanding lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll, a poll acclaimed for its impeccable accuracy.

Rasmussen poll as of October 14th 

• As of writing this, Nate Silver's failed algorithm over at FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary an 84% chance of winning; this is what we in the sports gambling business like to dub a "reverse-lock." 

• Trump has finally cut off deadweight by disavowing traitors within the Republican party. Paul Ryan and the establishment RINOs were just dragging him down. Now that Trump has thrown off his shackles, he's going to rise to the top.

• Wikileaks bombed the Clinton campaign harder than the Blitz of London.

• New economic data is out, and it doesn't look good for Hillary and Obama. Buffalo Wild Wings stocks plummeted by 13% in September. Folks are eating less buffalo wings these days as chicken prices continue to climb upwards. Solid political science research has demonstrated that chicken-wing consumption is a key barometer of economic health and consumer confidence in the economy. America losing its appetite for delicious wings, appetizers, and huge TVs is a bad sign for Hillary Clinton. Clinton needs voters to feel optimistic about the state of the economic recovery, as she has linked herself to Obama's economic policies. Bad economic news, especially about a beloved American classic like Buffalo Wild Wings, is bad news for Clinton and good news for Trump, who has promised to restore America's once great fried chicken industry.

[Source: Motley Fool]

But folks, these stories don't even scratch the surface of why Trump had one of his best weeks of the campaign. After crushing Clinton in the second debate, Trump has rallied his base and generated unprecedented enthusiasm. Some highly-generalizable anecdotes confirm this trend:

@mitchellvii I live in a heavy Democrat county in Ohio and the Dems are jumping ship. They're hard working people who are fed up.

— Heisenberg (@heisenberg1961) October 12, 2016

The most compelling evidence of Trump's surge toward the finish-line comes from a comparison of rally sizes. Despite the media doing their best effort to exaggerate enthusiasm for her candidacy, Clinton rallies have been laughably small.

 Folks, I've seen larger groups of people congregate in front of my local Little Caesars. The fact is, Trump has been crushing Hillary when it comes to rally sizes.

I'm sorry but no left wing media hack is going to tell me the man capable of THIS is losing to a woman who can't fill a cafeteria! pic.twitter.com/w3lm1WDaRg

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) October 4, 2016

Statistical attendance break-downs are just plain ugly for Secretary Clinton.

Trump vs Hillary rally attendance. That's deplorable! pic.twitter.com/Nf8hlrRdsw

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) October 3, 2016

Naturally, the liberal media jumped at the opportunity to hype Hillary's rallies when news broke that she was speaking at Ohio State University. Once again, the enthusiasm was proven to be fake.

Have spoken to people who go to Ohio U. The Clinton claim she had 18,000 yesterday is complete BS according to them. Not even half that.

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) October 11, 2016

 A quick eye-test of some photographs of the rallies reveals even more manipulation and lies.

That's right. My deep forensic analysis of this photograph of Clinton's Ohio State rally reveals some startling findings. Clinton has been inflating the size of her rallies by filling the crowd with PAID ACTORS, AMNESTIED SYRIAN REFUGEES, and FAKE COMPUTER GENERATED PEOPLE.

Don't believe the media folks, Trump is generating way more excitement than boring, crooked Hillary. Elections are about turning out your base. Hillary has no base: only mercenaries, refugees, and computer tricks. The Trump campaign is in cruise control as we head to the November 8th finale.

The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart. The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.

Newt's A Hoot: Gingrich for V.P.

Danville, Kentucky - Folks, the 2016 presidential race is nearing a turning point. I, Will Hart, am ready to announce that Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House and long-time representative from Georgia, has been chosen to be Donald Trump's running mate. I have received confirmation of this from a trusted source in Pooler, Georgia who has deep links the Georgia Republican Party and the Gingrich family. The mainstream Obamedia is afraid to break this story -- it might be a few weeks before CNN wake up to smell the McDonald's-brand coffee, but I'm ready to declare what the rest of the world will soon know to be true: Newt Gingrich will be the next Vice President of the United States.

Why has Trump chosen Gingrich? My trusted source was kind enough to fill me in on Donald's thought process. Here is Donald's rationale for selecting Newt to be the VP:

Newt Can Beat the Clintons

The nineties were a hell of a time to be alive, at least before they got ruined by grunge music and NAFTA. The awesomeness of the 1990s owed alot to Mr. Gingrich and his ability to score victory after victory against the nefarious Clinton administration. Newt's Contract with America was one of America's greatest victories in the late 20th century. Thanks to Newt and his Republican allies in Congress, federal overreach was stopped not one, not two, but three times, via multiple government shutdowns.

Newt is the Only Man Who Can Stop NAFTA

The NAFTA signing

Donald is riding a wave of protectionist, anti-globalist, anti-free trade sentiment straight to DC, and Newt is about to hop along for the ride. In fact, Newt is the only man available who can help Donald stop the globalists and protect American workers from the evils of NAFTA and TPP. Folks, Gingrich approved and voted for NAFTA. Newt understands the grimy details and inner-workings of this monstrous trade deal. He helped get it passed in Congress. Now, Newt, with his political saavy and legendary arm-twisting abilities, can help abolish NAFTA once and for all. The continued survival of our republic demands no less.

Newt and Donald Are Kindred Spirits

Newt is the perfect complement to Donald; the ranch dressing to Donald's buffalo wing. Like Donald and myself, Newt isn't afraid to hold out for true love: he's been divorced twice and married three times. Like Donald, Newt isn't afraid to be politically incorrect: he once called Obama "the food stamp President" and also called Spanish the "the language of living in a ghetto." Folks, Trump's campaign is all about dominating the 24-hour media cycle. That's why he's always saying outrageous things about federal judges and Megyn Kelly. With Newt Gingrich's loose lips on his side, Donald will ensure continued dominance in media coverage.

Newt is also unafraid to take on the media. Before a South Carolina debate on the Clinton News Network, or what the media calls CNN, Gingrich was asked if he wanted to comment on having an open marriage. Newt refused. The people of South Carolina gave him a big win. Newt refused to talk about irrelevant things, Hillary was busy emailing about irrelevant things, or at least I have to assume so, she deleted her emails.

A Needed Historian

This is a time where we cannot forgot our history. While Clinton tries to rewrite her tenure to exclude Whitewater, Newt cared so little about tenure he didn't even receive it at West Georgia University. But the decision of a liberal school didn't stop Newt. He went on to be a noted historian at Fannie Mac. Sure, the economy collapsed and Fannie has a role, but Benghazi collapsed and Clinton was the role. I can forgive Newt for working for Fannie Mae, I can't forgive Hillary for not working for Ambassador Stevens.

CONCLUSION

Newt and Don are a match made in heaven, like my first wife and I or the new Strawberry-Siracha wings at Buffalo Wild Wings.

It is my pleasure to formally announce that Newt has been selected to be Donald's running mate. With any luck, America will be great again. Have a wonderful 4th of July, folks.

Brexit Velocity: Chaos Is Coming

Danville, Kentucky -- Every time a civilization reaches the pinnacle of its decadence, chaos strikes to restore balance to the universe. When a forest grows too wild, a purging fire is natural and inevitable. Folks, Trump is here to return America to its equilibrium. The billionaire classes have become ignorant and fat in their dotage, extravagantly feasting upon the lower classes with the help of politicians like Crooked Hillary. For centuries, good folks around the world have been suppressed and kept down by myths of opportunity propagated by aristocrats in their high, cold ivory towers. All that is about to change. The powerful will be ripped from their decadent nests, and cast out into the cold world that folks like me know and endure. The detached finance capitalists in Washington and Brussels now quiver in fear like convicts awaiting the guillotine in France circa 1972.

Folks, the United Kingdom just won a great victory in the battle against corrupt globalism. The hard-working battle-tested factory workers of Northern England have risen up against their elitist Londoner oppressors. It is a battle being played out in every corner of the globe. Across the Atlantic, Donald Trump is leading the battle against criminal establishment politicians like Little Marco and Lyin’ Ted. It is a battle we cannot afford to lose. All Hillary and her liberal globalist allies care about is money. America deserves a better class of criminal. And Trump is going to give it to us.

Every political order eventually disintegrates. The Roman Empire gave way to the Byzantine Empire which gave way to the Napoleonic Empire which gave way to the Galactic Empire. The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. Trump and his legion of globalization's victims are casting away the musty chains of history to usher in a new and more glorious political order than ever before.

Folks now warn of the Brexit causing a new recession. Folks warn it might cause disintegration of the European Union, a time-tested multilateral body forged from the ashes of a war-ridden continent. Folks, that’s the point. Folks like the Clintons and Dave Cameron are obsessed with “stability,” when often what’s needed is good-old-fashioned chaos. Trump knows this. Trump welcomes chaos. Chaos is good for business – ‘crisis’ is after-all a synonym for ‘opportunity.’ Trump knows this. The Brexit wasn’t just the greatest exercise in English self-determination since Susan Boyle won Britain’s Got Talent in 2009; it single-handedly turned Trump’s golf courses in Scotland into cash-machines thanks to a newly worthlessly British Pound (£).

Donald and his anti-globalist allies Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are going to introduce a little anarchy: when you upset the established order, everything becomes chaos. He will take America back from the corrupt, the rich, and give it back to the people. The moment of truth now awaits. Those who might serve this noble cause must now step forward. Will America stick with the boring status quo, or will we vote for chaos and upheaval by electing Donald? Are we going to carpool in a minivan to work or try to hijack a rental car? Are we going to play it safe and order our fried chicken with parmesan garlic sauce, or risk our explosive intestinal pain by by doubling down on Blazin’ Wings?

The United Kingdom has spoken. Now it’s time for the United States to get on the Brexit ramp for chaos. Buckle up, folks. Take all the money out of your bank account and invest in gold bonds or stash it under your mattress. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Make Debating Great Again: Why Donald Must Debate Bernie

Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, I was never on the debate team in high school. I was too busy throwing no-hitters for the Danville High Admirals and spitting game with the local lasses. But I don't need a fancy debating pedigree to know that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have a chance to make history. The 1858 debate between Abraham Lincoln and Stephen A. Douglas (not to be confused with Stephen A. Smith) was ground breaking, and spawned an entire format of debate that high schoolers participate in to this day -- or so I'm told at these parent-teacher conferences that I try my hardest to mentally check out of. Donald and Bernie recently expressed interest in a debate, but Donald has inexplicably backed out. A debate between Donald Trump and Marxist underdog candidate Bernie Sanders would be just as impactful and world-changing as the Lincoln-Douglas debates of old, if only Donald can muster the courage to go through with it.

A high-profile debate against the new face of the democratic party offers a golden opportunity for Donald to define key narratives of the general election. Aside from being an epic clash of worldviews -- between Donald's America-first nationalism and Bernie's beggars-first moocherism -- Trump has a chance to cogently lay out the case for why America must be made great again, by debating against one of the big-spending Senators responsible for America's decline.

Donald is a fighter. He's never let fear get the best of him before, expect when he dodged the draft and pretended to be his own publicist. When Donald is faced with adversity, he confronts it head on, then makes the problem go away with his considerable financial resources. If he's not a coward, Donald must debate Bernie. And he must make these points:

#1 Attack Hillary

Bernie has tons of momentum heading into the California primary, having recently won crucial states like Oregon and West Virginia, home of the once proud miners whose lives have been decimated by Hillary and Obama's war on coal. Bernie keeps on winning primaries. You won't hear it from the Clinton-funded establishment media, but the delegate race is tightening by the hour as Bernie continues to forment a revolution against NAFTA and rich people. Once the results of the rigged Nevada primary are invalidated via judicial decree, Bernie will have a commanding delegate lead heading to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. The super-delegate race is primed to flip in Bernie's favor as well. Bernie's opponent, crooked Hillary, will be indicted and imprisoned for emailing on the job any day now. Things are looking up for Bernie.

Nonetheless, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, George Soros, George Clooney and the liberal-democratic Illuminati will never let Sanders be the democratic nominee. The democratic nomination has been signed, sealed, and delivered to Crooked Hillary. Donald must remember that he is not running against Bernie Sanders, and keep his eye on the prize. Bernie has been too afraid to attack Hillary for emailing on the job, but Donald must stay on the attack.

#2 Emphasize Common Ground

Bernie and Donald have alot in common. They're both great family men. They're both men of the people. Both of them despise President Obama and seek to reverse his signature accomplishments. They both want to protect American workers like me and my Uncle Bert. They're the only two politicians willing to speak the truth about the horrors of NAFTA, the back-stabbing trade deal that brought us shuttered factories and buffalo wing inflation. Donald needs to make sure these commonalities are not lost on his audience. Fortunately, Donald is at his best when everyone on the stage agrees with him, as evidenced by his stirring debate performances throughout the Republican primary. Being able to emphasize areas of agreement between himself and Bernie will help Trump peel away disaffected Bernie Bros from Hillary in the general election, ensuring a Trump sweep of rustbelt swing states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

#3 Insult Bernie

OK, folks. Everyone knows Donald and Bernie have some stuff in common, like great hair and yuge stage presence. But Donald needs to assert dominance. Nobody is watching presidential debates to learn about issues. Folks want to see fireworks and beat-downs you can usually only find on professional wrestling. Donald needs to do what he does best: don't worry about explaining policy details or ideological differences, just insult and belittle your opponent. Make fun of Bernie for only getting divorced once; real men have usually had three or four wives by the time they're Bernie's age. Make fun of Bernie for being poor and driving a normal car instead of flying around in Trump Force One. Mock Bernie's wife for not being as hot as Melania. This is the stuff presidents are made of.

#4 Insult Loser Republicans

Donald needs to realize Crooked Hillary is not his only enemy. The Bush-Romney-Ryan GOP establishment axis are already planning to blindside Donald by supporting an independent RINO candidate to destroy the Republican party from within and stop Trump.

Just a heads up over this holiday weekend: There will be an independent candidate--an impressive one, with a strong team and a real chance.

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) May 29, 2016

Donald needs to use the debate stage to preempt the traitorous treachery of the GOP establishment that is hell-bent on stopping him at all costs. That means insulting loser Republicans, even if they aren't on stage. Call John McCain a weenie. Call Jeb low-energy. Rattle off some one-liners about Lyin' Ted, Awkward Mitt, and Little Marco, even though they dropped out of the race months ago. Nerds have questioned the wisdom of Donald randomly attacking members of his own party. Folks, these worry-warts have never run a smash-hit campaign like Donald or written a masterpiece like Art of the Deal. Donald became the Republican nominee because folks love it when he attacks Republicans. Worry about uniting the party latter. In the meantime, let the zingers fly.

#5 Suggest A Trump-Sanders Ticket 

Lyin' Ted and Kasich's futile attempt to team up and stop Trump was an abysmal failure, as was the #NeverTrump movement. But Donald has an opportunity to create a ticket that would be Crooked Hillary's worst nightmare: a Trump-Sanders duo that would sweep through the industrial Midwest en route to a historic victory. Such a ticket would divide the democratic party and doom Hillary, simultaneously saving America in the process.

CONCLUSION

A Trump-Sanders debate would be a massive cultural event. Normally you have to go to a New York deli to watch old bald men from Brooklyn and Queens yell at eachother. Only this argument isn't about Rye vs. Pumpernickel or Lox vs Pastrami; it's an argument about the fate of America itself.

Expect sky-high ratings. Expect wall-to-wall coverage. Expect me to get kicked out of Buffalo Wild Wings when the manager refuses to change the channel on one of their grotesquely large TVs to the Trump-Sanders debate, for fear of disrupting an ESPN-3 women's college softball game. Expect Crooked Hillary to quiver in fear. Expect the tradition of American political debates to be great again. Greater than ever before.

TWTW's Pistons v. Cavaliers Preview

Danville, Kentucky -- There's no better feeling than picking up your first pay stub at a new job. The nineties were not kind to me. NAFTA battered and bruised me -- I was more crestfallen and defeated than Grant Hill's ankles. In 2005, after a few years of aimlessly bouncing around dead-end jobs, I had a gut feeling that the housing market was the place to be. I got myself an online degree in real estate, and hit the mean streets of Danville to sell houses, eager like I was fired from a cannon. It was beautiful, folks. And there was no feeling more rewarding than spending my hard-earned wages on the best appetizers and bourbon a Danville man can buy. The most important part of my successful real estate venture was that it proved hard work pays off. When faced with unemployment and bankruptcy, I did what all true Americans do: I went back to work.

The Detroit Pistons of 2000-2009 were a team that was all about going to work. They didn't have the flash or the star power of teams like Kobe's Lakers, but they wore opponents down with hard-nosed defense and their grinder mentality. Seven years ago, an aging Pistons team's reign of dominance came to an end when King James unceremoniously dethroned them in the first round of the playoffs. After many seasons of irrelevance, the Pistons are finally back in the playoffs. Seven years later, LeBron must suppress an upstart young Pistons team if he hopes to advance out of the Eastern Conference and vie for one more rematch vs. the San Antonio Spurs or nerd-darlings Golden State Warriors.

Lots of folks these days love to rave about the quality of the Western Conference while disparaging the East. The Western Conference may have a better TS%, shiner PER numbers, more VORP, and Steph Curry, but for all their glitz and glamour, they lack the tenacious grit of the East. Folks, it's good to see two blue collar towns like Cleveland and Detroit squaring off in the playoffs. Here are the key factors that will determine the winner of the series:

MOMENTUM

Folks, the Pistons have all the momentum in this match-up. Fresh off a 112-110 victory over the Cavaliers in the last game of the regular season, they've already set the tone for the series. In addition, the Pistons won the season series 3-1. The city of Detroit is united behind the Pistons, thrilled to see their team back in contention. The city of Cleveland is not united behind the Cavaliers: folks from the mistake on the lake are more preoccupied with the looming threat of political violence as the 2016 Republican National Convention nears. The Cavaliers have limped into the playoffs, reeling from humiliating losses to the Brooklyn Nets, Memphis Grizzlies, and pitiful Chicago Bulls recently. Not to mention, the team is in disarray: at the moment when LeBron needs to lead the team, he won't even follow the Cavaliers on twitter. LeBron wants OUT of Cleveland again, which may put the Pistons back IN to the Conference Semi-Finals. Advantage: Pistons.

COACHING

This first round match-up also presents an intriguing coaching showdown: the veteran Stan Van Gundy versus the unproven Tyronn Lue. SVG has the Pistons united around a single purpose: winning. In Cleveland's Game of Thrones, Lue is just King James' puppet. SVG has tons of playoff experience and once coached the Orlando Magic to the NBA finals; what Lue knows about coaching in the playoffs, SVG could fit into his eyes with little to no discomfort. Advantage: Pistons.

POINT GUARD

Kyrie Irving is the most overrated thing to come out of Cleveland since the Indians. He cares more about his scoring numbers than making his teammates better. Meanwhile, Reggie Jackson is one of the game's clutchest. Advantage: Pistons.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE

While the Pistons have more heart than the quarreling, in-fighting Cavs, they are greener in the gills. They could be mentally unprepared for the challenge that awaits. LeBron alone has played more minutes in the playoffs than the entire Pistons roster. The Pistons might not be ready for the spotlight. Advantage: Cavaliers. 

BENCH

The Pistons bench is depleted like my finances after a trip to the Casino. There will be no cavalry or reinforcements off the bench: just the rotting corpse of Steve Blake. Advantage: Cavaliers.

FINAL PREDICTION

The Pistons have a lot going in their favor. They're young, scrappy, and hungry. Andre Drummond vacuums up rebounds like I vacuum up mini corn dogs at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Yet, the Cavaliers have rings. They also have LeBron James, who in my opinion, is still the game's premier talent -- jacking up threes doesn't impress me, Steph. Kevin Love is a great player, though these days he seems to care more about making bad State Farm commercials than refining his game. I predict the Cavaliers will win in 5 games.

Even in defeat, 2016 is a victory for the Pistons. They have climbed the mountain. They have righted the ship. They have returned to the playoffs. They have gone back to work.

My return to work was short-lived. My time in the real-estate sector was great while it lasted, but like my time at the GM plant and my time on the oil rigs, it wasn't meant to last. Intrusive government regulation and the welfare state eventually brought us the 2008 housing market collapse and the Obama presidency. But with the Obama presidency in its waning days, things are looking up again in America. For the Pistons and millions of other job-seeking Americans across this country, it's time to go to work.

TWTW's March Madness Takes

Danville, Kentucky -- March: a month that begins with wanton consumption of Shamrock Shakes and Irish Whiskey. March: a month that ends with several straight weeks spent at my local Buffalo Wild Wings watching college basketball. It's a thing of beauty. With golden foamy beer on my right and shiny sauced-drenched boneless chicken wings on my left, I feel at one with the universe as the drama of college basketball plays out before my eyes on multiple high-definition big screen TVs. From this perfect vantage point, I can see seniors scrap for survival while mid-major underdogs prove to the world that they truly belong amongst the world's top collegiate athletes. More importantly, the stirring story-lines of the NCAA tournament offer a brief respite from the banal drudgery of my middle-aged, divorced existence.

Lots of nerds will offer lots of hot takes about the tournament. They'll cite Kenpom, eFG%, PER and all manor of statistics as they offer advice on how to fill out your bracket. What these number-crunchers don't understand is that the glorious March tradition of cannot be explained or predicted by looking at a team's Pythagorean win/loss record. March Madness is like the gladiatorial contests of ancient Rome: statistics mean nothing when a scrappy Cinderella team like 2012 Norfolk State is determined to defy the odds in stunning fashion.

Don't trust the metrics. Trust your own eyes. Here are my thoughts on March Madness. Fill out your brackets accordingly.

Don't Sleep on Bakersfield

Bakersfield is not like the rest of California. A solitary bulwark of working class values in an otherwise irredeemably blue state, Bakersfield has been at the receiving end of the gut-punch that is globalization and unfettered free trade. It's Bakersfield that bears the brunt of Los Angeles' profligate air pollution, boasting the worst air-quality in the country. Bakersfield is one of America's top energy producing cities, where many folks' economic well-being lives or dies on the oil rig. The recent crash in gasoline prices has hit these good folks hard; the only thing they are holding on to is the dream of the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners making a run at March Madness glory.

And let me tell you, the people of Bakersfield are good people. My Uncle Truman, named after the last president truly tough enough to win a war, has lived there his whole life. Bakersfield is a hard-working city, where people go to premier watering-holes like Goose Loonies Tavern after a long day at the oil rig. Bakersfield is one of the few cities to stand up against the forces of globalization that are holding back American ingenuity and innovation. In 1993, Donald Trump spoke out against NAFTA at the Cal State Bakersfield campus. In 2016, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield endorsed Trump as the candidate most likely to energize the Republican Party. Bakersfield is ground zero for NAFTA's devastation, but this city is also where NAFTA will meet its final defeat.

The proletarian grit of the Bakersfield Roadrunners doesn't show up on a Kenpom spreadsheet. Oklahoma (2) versus CSU Bakersfield (15) has major upset potential, for those of you at home filling out brackets. Oklahoma's recent defeat in the Big 12 tournament at the hands of the scrappy full-court pressing West Virginia Moutaineers bodes ill for the Sooners' chances against the similarly feisty Roadrunners. If Bakersfield pulls a page from genius coach Bob Huggins' playbook, it could be a long night for OU, a team that shoots way too many threes. Bakersfield, fresh off a clutch buzzer-beating win in the WAC championship game, has all the momentum. The Roadrunners play a high-intensity, physical brand of defense that could very well thwart jump-shot reliant players like Buddy Hield. Don't bet against the Roadrunners.

Baylor Bears: Young, Scrappy, Hungry

The Baylor Bears have TWTW. Taurean Prince was once a commit to LIU-Brooklyn. I'm not sure what LIU stands for, but Prince stands for winning. He now projects to be a first round NBA draft pick? How did he do it? By spending his summer in the gym instead of playing Xbox One Live.

Then they have Rico Gathers. He's planning to play in the NFL. Baylor has a pro day for the NFL. Lots of kids skip class to go to parties. Rico is skipping pro day to go play in the tournament. What a player - he cares more about the team he's committed to than having "measurables" for Roger Goodell. With a matchup against Yale nerds in the first round, don't bet against the Bears.

Wichita State Seniors: Experience Counts

The Shockers are a team so good I can't believe Kenpom likes them. There's a lot to like about the Shockers: they have senior veteran leadership, tons of tournament experience, and great chemistry. Evan Wessel, Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are not only top tier talents, but best friends. They've been to the big dance before. Most important of all, the Shockers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being disrespected by the selection committee with an 11 seed. On paper, Wichita State probably wasn't as good as the Kansas Jayhawks team they beat in the 3rd round of the tournament last year. But Wichita State had something that doesn't show up on paper: hustle and friendship. I like this team to make a deep run.

Greg Marshall even turned down job offers to coach this team. Coach Marshall knew he could head to Alabama or some other state that also has great seafood. Instead, he realized you can still get great seafood in Kansas if you just know where the right Red Lobster is located. Marshall knows where the right wins are in the tournament. Take them to advance.

KU: A Team in Need of 2's

The Kansas Jayhawks are another team that is difficult to pick against. They have Shocker-esque chemistry and camaraderie.

My buddy in Lawrence just saw Devonte Graham and Tyler Self at @BWWings. The team that wings together wins together. #MarchMadness

— The Will To Win (@TWTWsports) March 14, 2016

They've also got a ton of momentum on their side, coming fresh off an authoritative romp through the Big 12 tournament. Yet, I have my reservations about this team. Long story short, they shoot too many 3's. The folks calling for KU to take more threes, Five Thirty Eight included, are dead wrong. Unfortunately, Bill Self seems to have listened to them. I've never understood the second-guessing nerds who think they can design a better offense than 12-time Big 12 champion Bill Self. There's a reason Bill Self is the coach, and there's a reason his critics are mostly bloggers. The KU three-pointer debate is often framed as a forced choice between chucking up threes and feeding the ball to Perry Ellis down low. Folks, I know the perfect middle ground: KU needs to stop being afraid of taking mid-range two-pointers.

I think there is big upset potential if KU has to face Connecticut. Connecticut is angry they were left out of a major conference. It's why they won the tournament in 2013 despite having nowhere near the best players - that team needed overtime in the round of 64 to beat St. Joe's before winning the whole ship.

The House Tom Izzo Built: This is (March) Madness

Folks, nobody does more with less than Tom Izzo. His recruits aren't as flashy or beloved by metrics as some other schools, but his great in-game managing ensures that the Spartans get the most out of the roster that they have. The "snub factor" I described with Wichita State is also at play here with MSU -- Izzo and his boys know they're a #1 seed, and will be pumped up as they attempt to prove the selection committee wrong. This could be the year Izzo gets Michigan State a second NCAA Championship.

Conclusion

You could spend hours creating a bracket by analyzing luck ratings, home/road splits, and strength of schedule numbers. Or you can go with your gut. The NCAA tournament is predictably unpredictable. But there is one thing I can confidently predict: narrative matters.

Affordable Electricity: In Defense of Mike Pelfrey

Danville, Kentucky -- Our society takes electricity for granted. It keeps our houses warm in winter, and cools them down in summer. Electricity keeps the freezer icy so we can have chilled Fireball on demand. Electricity brought us the gift of Buffalo Wild Wings, and its techno-utopian panoply of massive plasma-screen televisions; so that no man would be forced to miss out on a pivotal sporting event while using the facilities. Each successive generation of Americans tries to guarantee that the country we bestow upon the next generation is even greater than the one we inherited from our mothers and fathers. My generation is able to simultaneously utilize a Buffalo Wild Wings restroom and watch a baseball game, thanks to the wisdom of previous generations of Americans and the miracle of affordable electricity.

Affordable electricity: a phrase that perfectly describes right-handed pitcher Mike Pelfrey, yet seems quaint in the age of Obama and his energy-strangling regulations. Mike Pelfrey, who once donned the lightning-yellow attire of the Wichita State Shockers, knows all about electricity.

Pelfrey Will Shock his Doubters

Make no mistake: a brief look at Pelfrey's resume and his pitching arsenal reveals a man that is both electric and affordable. Financially speaking, 2 years and 16 million dollars is a small price to pay for a man that will anchor a Detroit rotation that was woefully over-reliant on untested farmhands like Buck Farmer, Kyle Ryan, and Shane Greene last season. Signing Pelfrey is a slick depth move that will give youngbloods like Matt Boyd and Michael Fulmer time to cut their teeth in the minor leagues.

His arsenal is impressive as well. With his Tommy John surgery now further back in the rear-view mirror, his velocity was up last season. He throws his fastball hard and his offspeed pitches soft, featuring a wicked splitter and sinker that keeps hitters off balance. Mr. Pelfrey stands to be a major beneficiary of the recently-improved Tigers defense as well.

In spite of the signing's obvious logic, the acquisition of Mike Pelfrey by the Detroit Tigers has become one of the most maligned moves of the offseason, with the basement-dwellers at Fangraphs calling it the #9 worst move of the offseason. Eno Sarris and his disciples disparage the Pelf's xFIP, claiming that his Ks are declining faster than Rubio's chances at becoming the Republican nominee.

Two years for the worst pitcher in baseball by one of the most important stats … https://t.co/elDysCxpFE Congratulations, Tigers!

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) December 4, 2015

Metrics don't like him; people who watch the game with their own two eyeballs do. I'm a longtime fan of Pelf, and considered him All-Star worthy last year. The Tiger scouts know what they saw when they told Al Avila to sign him. Even Dartmouth nerd Brad Ausmus got it right when he said the Pelfrey signing was based on "the eye test."

It would be a mistake more grave than hosting a private email server to believe that Pelfrey has nothing to contribute to the 2016 Tigers. Like the 2016 Tigers, the 2015 Twins were pronounced dead on arrival by the pre-season projections. When the 2015 Twins defied the proclamations of nerds and outperformed their projections, it was in no small part due to Pelfrey's suave stylings and steady leadership. Thanks to Pelfrey's contributions the 2015 Twins had a winning record and were playoff contenders, finishing second-place in the AL Central after every analyst (other than me) pegged them as a last-place team. There isn't an arm in the league you'd rather have on your side if your season depends on proving the nerds wrong.

Mike is a Man of Character with a Proven Track Record

Not only can Pelfrey beat the odds: he can beat the Royals.

The 2016 Tigers need to beat the 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals™ if they want to contend. Fortunately for the Tigers, Mike Pelfrey has been able to do what David Price, Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom couldn't do: beat the Royals. The Twins were undefeated in Mr. Pelfrey's 3 starts versus Kansas City last season, including a merciless shutout against the team that would eventually take the crown. Compare that to supposed ace Chris Sale; the White Sox lost both his starts versus the Royals last season. The path to the AL Central pennant runs through Kansas City, an aggressive hitting team that doesn't strikeout or walk. Against a team like that, you need a guy like Pelfrey who can produce weak contact and let the defense do the rest.

More important than Pelfrey's velocity or his ground-ball percentage is his fortitude. Born and raised in Wichita, Kansas -- a city I like to think of as the Detroit of the Heartland because of its manufacturing acumen -- Mr. Pelfrey is a man who knows rust, weathered iron, and billowing smoke stacks like the back of his hand. He's an underdog man from an underdog city. He will fit in well playing in the Motor City. This is a man who has stayed true to his roots; he was a Met, but there are no New York Values here -- just good old fashioned Mid West decency and work ethic.

Work ethic is perhaps the singularly most discounted factor in an era of STEAMER, ZiPs, and FIP. A man's K% or HR/FB ratio may regress, but work ethic doesn't. Hard work is what made America great, and it is what will make America great again. In lesser countries, wantonly consuming electricity with countless televisions in a sports bar would be considered excessive. But in America, it is my God given right to drunkenly bumble into a restroom full of flat screen TVs that are covered in the buffalo-sauce fingerprints of the great men who came before me. I believe in Buffalo Wild Wings. I believe in America. I believe in Mike Pelfrey.