Alcides Escobar Must Bat Lead-Off

Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, it didn't take long, but the spreadsheet gazers of the world are already questioning the wisdom of World Series Champion™  Ned Yost. Overreacting to a couple of games of lukewarm offensive production in April, folks are calling for ALCS MVP Alcides Escobar to be demoted from the lead-off spot of the batting order. The calls are growing louder and louder.

Royals have left 300 men on base tonight, oh and Escobar is NOT a leadoff hitter Ned!!!!!!

— Rob - Vegas34 (@RebelRob34) April 28, 2016

Even Omar is a better leadoff hitter than Escobar.

— Adam (@barretta816) April 28, 2016

Escobar should not be batting leadoff. Cute story in the playoffs. Get serious.

— Brian (@BrianMcGannon) April 28, 2016

For the love of God, get Alcides Escobar out of the leadoff spot. #Royals

— Ryan Landreth (@ryan_landreth) April 27, 2016

The fine folks at Baseball Prospectus KC are demanding it. Some dude from Topeka is demanding it. Even Jesse Newell, a great man and lover of Kansas Football, has criticized Mr. Escobar. But they're wrong.

It's a bigger over-reaction than the Dodd-Frank legislation passed by Congress in the aftermath of the '08 financial crisis. Like Dodd-Frank, any rash decision to displace Esky from the top of the Royals' lineup would both stymie productivity and introduce massive uncertainty.

Let's look at the likely alternatives, for starters.

JARROD DYSON

Folks, I love Jarrod. The man has speed. The man has swagger. He isn't afraid to bunt, steal, and stunt on fools; an all around nasty old-school player with an attitude that's hard to come by in the age of moneyball. However, putting Dyson in the lead-off spot makes no sense. Keeping Dyson's lefty bat in the #9 spot, Esky's righty bat in the #1 spot, and lefty Moose's bat in the #2 spot gives opposing managers headaches when it comes time to make late-game relief pitching changes based on righty/lefty match-ups. That's a huge edge for the boys in blue. Moreover, Dyson is right at home in the #9 spot -- it's like having a second lead-off hitter after the 1st inning. Dyson is putting up great numbers from the #9 spot this year, and looks very comfortable. It would be unwise to move Dyson away from a role where he is currently excelling.

ALEX GORDON

Putting Alex Gordon in the #1 spot would be a real Terry Francona move. Francona recently promoted DH Carlos Santana to the lead-off spot, citing his ability to get on base via plate discipline and walks. Terry Francona's team, the Indians, are currently in 3rd place. There's a reason why Ned just won a World Series while Terry is most well-known for running the Indians into the ground for several straight seasons. Folks, I know Gordon has a shinier OBP than Esky. But leadoff hitters aren't supposed to chase walks and clog the bases. The top of the lineup needs to be quick, and put the ball in play. Do the Royals win Game 1 of the 2015 World Series if Esky draws a walk instead of hitting a first-pitch inside-the-park home run? I doubt it.

I love Mr. Gordon. But he Ks too much for the lead-off spot, and the Royals need Gordon's power bat lower in the lineup, where he can drive in runs. Don't move Gordon. OBP is overrated. Give me a quick guy who can put the ball in play any day.

OMAR INFANTE

Folks, I'd defend Omar to the death. He's got more World Series experience than just about any player in baseball not on the San Francisco Giants. But Omar is a doubles machine. The Royals need Omar's doubles later in the batting order, to cash in base-runners and score runs.

CONCLUSION

Being a baseball player is just like any other job: a man needs certainty. I once worked on an oil rig. I loved drilling black gold, and I was damn good at it. I had great hand-eye coordination and could implement the drilling plans our petroleum engineers drew up, no matter how complicated or risky. But if you had changed my role -- taken away my job as a driller, and made me a Service Unit Operator, for instance -- I'd have failed miserably. I just don't know how to read and interpret all those thermometers, gauges, and pressure indicators, folks. A baseball team is like an oil-rig: it's a finely-tuned machine. You can't go switching key parts of a machine willy-nilly, unless you're trying to cause Deepwater Horizon 2.0. You could inadvertently destroy the entire chemistry of the Royals lineup if you take Esky out of the lead-off spot.

Alcides Escobar is an MVP, an All-Star Game starting shortstop, and a fantastic lead-off man. You'd have to have a very short memory to flirt with removing Esky from a role he thrives in.

Do these people not remember Alcides' clutch single in the 8th inning of ALDS Game 4, which kept the line moving and ultimately led to a season-saving rally?

Have the critics forgotten about Escobar's RBI single in the 3rd inning of ALCS Game 1, which ended up being the only run the Royals needed in a 5-0 victory?

What about Esky's sublime bunt single in the first inning of ALCS Game 4, setting the table for a Ben Zobrist 2-run bomb? That's prototypical lead-off man stylings, folks.

The first-pitch inside-the-park homer wasn't even Esky's finest offensive contribution in last year's World Series. Don't forget his RBI single and RBI triple in World Series Game 2. Or his RBI double -- a crucial insurance run -- in the decisive Game 5 of the 2015 World Series.

In the past two postseasons, Mr. Escobar has posted a .311 batting average, with 9 doubles, 3 triples, and 14 RBI. He's earned his spot as the lead-off hitter.

Fortunately, Ned is a man with patience. Ned knows that if Esky was good enough for the World Champion 2015 Royals, he'll be good enough for the 2016 Royals too. Just give him time. Don't mess with something that works. Batting Alcides Escobar at the top of the Royals lineup made Kansas City great. Those that want to make Kansas City great again should hope he stays there.

TWTW's Opening Day Preview: Detroit Tigers @ Miami Marlins

Danville, Kentucky -- Time: its passage is as inexorable as it is cruel. With each tick of the clock, time passes like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow, like Chile con queso slips between a man's fingers if he's bold enough to thrust a hand into the skillet and lay claim to the cheesy goodness for himself. Time passes, but memories of simpler times and younger days do not.

Memory can be a refuge of comfort, nostalgia, and consolation, but memory can also pierce, sear, and sting like a hot needle in an amateur do-it-yourself ear piercing operation. Baseball is a game of memory. The game honors its golden-era forebears, and judges each new generation of players using these heroes as a benchmark.

For Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers, their season-opener vs. the Miami Marlins will arouse a variety of memories --- mostly negative. Justin Verlander will face Wei-Yin Chen, Taiwan's finest son. This game is not considered a marquee match-up in 2016, a year of statistical inundation and sabermetric besiegement. Yet, for Verlander, this is the match-up of a lifetime.

October 3rd, 2014. Game 2 of the American League Divisional Series between the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers. A cold and salty Autumn breeze was blowing in from the nearby harbor. With Max Scherzer having failed to silence the bombastic Orioles offense the night before, Mr. Verlander was tasked with playing stopper. His opponent was Baltimore's Taiwanese lefty, Wei-Yin Chen. A game 2 win would tie the series and give the Tigers a chance to take a series lead on their home-field with David Price on the mound. In years past, Justin had been the man to single-handedly keep the Tigers' playoff hopes alive. He put the team on his back and delivered wins in games 1 and 5 of the 2012 ALDS and game 3 of the 2012 ALCS. In 2013 he once again delivered a game 5 win in the ALDS, while allowing 1 run the entire postseason.

In game 2 of the 2014 ALDS, that Verlander was nowhere to be found. Justin, the man who only a postseason ago was a complete game-throwing strikeout machine, went 5 innings --- putting the game in the hands of a bullpen less trustworthy than Megyn Kelly. The results were predictable. Though the voracious right-handed slugging Tigers lineup had pounded Wei-Yin Chen like mainland China might one day decimate Wei-Yin's native Taiwan in a hypothetical cross-Strait war, Joba Chamberlain and Joakim Soria's entry into the game was rightfully greeted with cheers from the Baltimore audience as they conspired to squander a winnable game. The Orioles took a 2-0 lead in the series before winning game 3 in Detroit to complete the sweep. The Detroit Tigers have not played playoff baseball since.

Tomorrow's Tigers-Marlins match-up is not considered particularly sexy by the fangraphs crowd. Both teams project to be middle-of-the-pack in their respective divisions, if you are foolish enough to believe projections. Other opening day showdowns have more compelling story-lines; take the re-match between the World Champion Kansas City Royals™ and the runner-up New York Mets, for instance. I planned to write a preview of last night's Matt Harvey v. Edinson Volquez face-off, but I've been in a spiraling haze of depressive alcoholism for the past few days as polling data shows Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump in Wisconsin.

Casual baseball fans could be forgiven for not caring about this Tigers-Marlins match-up. But for Justin Verlander, this game means the world. Longing for redemption, he has a chance to help the team get off to a good start as the Tigers take on the Marlins in Miami. To do so, he'll have to do what he couldn't do in 2014: beat Wei-Yin Chen, ex-Oriole and key free agent signing by Miami. Justin, restored to his rightful role as opening day starter after temporarily yielding the position to Max Scherzer in 2014 and David Price in 2015, knows what must be done. A time will come for reflection on his disappointing 2014 and quiet, unheralded brilliance down the stretch in 2015, but it is not this day. On this opening day, Justin will take the mound with a steely eyed-determination. Metrics don't respect the Marlins, but Justin will. Giancarlo Stanton is the baseball equivalent of a B-52 bomber. Dee Gordon and Ichiro are better at slap-hitting than my ex-wives. Opening day will be a test, but Justin is ready for it.

After his opening day start, Justin Verlander will take the most well-known Upton in the Tigers organization out to a secluded spot on the beach and sip a tropical beverage adorned with a colorful little umbrella. As he gazes wistfully at the Atlantic Ocean, illuminated by the mingling orange, pink, and golden hues of the Miami sunset, Justin will accept that he cannot undo the failures of 2014 and 2015.

the sun sets in Miami, but not upon Verlander.

The agonizing memories of Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy celebrating their berth to the ALCS on the Tigers' home turf cannot be un-etched from Justin's psyche. Yet, each new baseball season offers the possibility of absolution from the sins of yesterday. Justin will slowly sip on his cocktail, feeling inner serenity and tranquility.

Time passes and players come and go, but Justin draws strength from his status as the immovable pillar of the Tigers' franchise since debuting with the team in 2006. The script for 2016 is largely the same as 2015, albeit with some new cast-members like Jordan Zimmerman, Justin Upton, and Mike Pelfrey. Justin, Detroit's Once and Future Ace, has to find a way to defy time and deliver his team to the October Classic. Justin is not a man who excels in a Best Supporting Actor role, playing sidekick to Scherzer or Price. He is a man who relishes the spotlight and all its attendant pressures and expectations. Justin has restored himself as Detroit's unquestioned leader. He must now restore baseball in Detroit.

Why Francisco Lindor Must Bunt for His Life

Danville, Kentucky -- Every once and a while, an idea bounces around the sabermetric echo chamber that's so patently absurd, it begs to be refuted. The notion that Francisco Lindor needs to stop bunting is one such argument.

Lindor is a great player. I've taken interest in him since his minor league days, and was fortunate enough to witness his first major league hit (and goofy tumble in between first and second base) in-person. But Lindor is now under fire from the spreadsheet-gazers. He broke two of the Ten Commandments of Fangraphs: never be a good teammate or sacrifice bunt. When Tito Francona weighed in on the issue recently, it sparked an outcry:

Indians manager Terry Francona, on Lindor using sacrifice bunts to move runners: pic.twitter.com/baVm30xV1F

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) March 15, 2016

And I mean an outcry. My twitter feed is full of articles about why this poor kid is ignorant and misguided for trying to advance a runner. (See the following articles: [1][2][3])

The anti-bunting argument goes as follows: Lindor is a very good hitter (no argument here) and shouldn't give away free outs because it decreases his team's run expectancy. By this logic, the sacrifice bunt is a selfish rally-killing move that is detrimental to the team's scoring probabilities. It's the type of argument that sounds superficially plausible if you ignore how the game is actually played on the field. It's the type of argument made by people who have never been on a baseball field, down by one run, with a sense of fierce urgency in their heart as they try to put their team in a position to win.

I had to chuckle to myself when August Fagerstorm wrote:

in the games in which Lindor attempted a bunt, the Indians, who finished the season above .500, went 7-10

I thought it was no longer politically correct to cite win/loss records? Isn't win/loss record an archaic, meaningless stat? The problem is, when you look at the results, Lindor's bunting was actually quite helpful to the Tribe.

The Record Speaks for itself: Lindor Must Bunt

You can denigrate Lindor's decision-making with all manor of stats. I'm a more results oriented guy, so I decided to look at the actual outcome of Lindor's sac-bunting. According to baseball reference, Mr. Lindor laid down 13 sacrifice bunts last year. Unlike team spreadsheet, I decided to revisit the game-logs before issuing a verdict on whether or not Francisco is well-served by continuing the practice. I was startled by how successful Frankie was at bunting.

June 22nd, vs. the Tigers. Lindor advances Jason Kipnis to 3rd base. Michael Brantley hits single, Kipnis scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

July 5th, vs. the Pirates. Lindor advances Kipnis to 3rd base. Brantley hits single, Kipnis scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

August 3rd, vs. the Angels. Lindor advances Ramirez to 2nd base. Brantley hits single, Ramirez scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked. In fact, judging by Carlos Santana's propensity to K, it's a good thing Lindor advanced Ramirez to 2nd.

August 8th, vs. the Twins. Lindor advances Jose Ramirez to 2nd base. Michael Brantley singles, Ramirez scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

August 13th, vs. the Yankees. Lindor advances Giovanny Urshela to 3rd base and Jose Ramirez to 2nd base. A Brantley lineout and Santana single score both runners. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked. 



 August 25th, vs. the Brewers. Lindor advances Kipnis to 3rd base. Brantley walks. A Santana double and Lonnie Chisenhall single scores both runners. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

August 30th, vs. the Angels. Lindor advances Kipnis to 3rd base. Brantley scores Kipnis. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

Conclusion

Surprising, isn't it? Judging by the tone of the Lindor bunting debate, you'd think he was haphazardly giving away outs, single-handedly thwarting the Indians offense. An analysis of THE ACTUAL GAMES, rather than a spreadsheet, reveals that in 7 of his 13 sacrifice bunt attempts, the Indians scored. That's a better than 50% success rate. Given that baseball is a game of inches, I'll take those runs produced by Frankie's selflessness. You could always gamble -- letting Lindor swing freely instead of bunting -- but that opens up the possibility of hitting into a double play and makes it more likely that you strand the runner. For a team with documented RISP-struggles like the Tribe, it makes sense to bunt and score at least one run.

What about the 6 times that Lindor's sacrifice bunt did not result in an Indians run? That's on the people batting behind him in the lineup. I've said for a while that the Indians lack of RBI-production will be the bane of their World Series hopes. If you can't score a runner from second with one out, that speaks to the team's slugging deficiencies, not the wisdom of Lindor's decision to bunt. Lindor can lead a horse to water, but he can't make it drink, especially if this horse isn't clutch. This problem could be easily fixed by the Indians acquiring Matt Kemp, but that's an argument for another day.

Sacrifice bunting is part of the game. You want to know who else sacrifice bunts alot? 2015 American League Championship Series MVP and All-Star shortstop Alcides Escobar, of the World Champion Kansas City Royals™., who boasted 11 sacrifice bunts to his name in 2015. You can't blame Frankie for trying to emulate the best. Lindor taking advice on bunting strategy from baseball bloggers is a little like Donald Trump taking advice from Marco Rubio on how to run a successful presidential campaign.

I encourage those disparaging Lindor's bunts to actually look at the historical record instead of run expectancy charts. Lindor has gotten the job done. Undoubtedly, Lindor's success is part of why Francona has been reluctant to reign him in despite the protestation of saber-inclined Indians fans. I trust Lindor's judgement. I think you should too.

What a teammate.