The TWTW Model: Final Update

Danville, Kentucky -- Here we are folks: the home stretch. 4th down. The bottom of the 9th inning. The sprint to the finish-line. Next Tuesday, Donald J. Trump will be the President of the United States.

Folks, one of the best foods in all the world is airport pizza. That's right, airport pizza. The kind they sell for $7 a slice after it's been sitting under a lamp for hours. The kind that's so greasy it makes you want to take a shower after you eat it. The kind of pizza with slippery cheese and sweaty little pockets of grease atop each pepperoni.

Folks, airport pizza thrives in pressure situations. When the bright spotlights and microwave beams come pressing down upon airport pizza, its deliciousness only increases. Folks, Hillary Clinton does not thrive in pressure situations. She's crumbling and hobbling to the finish line.

Here are the key indicators that lead me to predict a Trump win on Tuesday:

1) Halloween Masks

Halloween mask sales have predicted every Presidential winner since 1980. Right now, Trump masks lead Hillary by 30%.

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) October 22, 2016

Enough said. I'll trust tried-and-trued indicators like this over Nate Silver's mathematical fairy tales any day.

2) Facebook Activity

Trump is all the rage on social media, generating far more enthusiasm among internet users. This augurs well for his presidential run.

3) Landline voters

So much polling these days is conducted poorly. Many poll are conducted via the internet or only poll respondents who use cellphones. Folks, these polls stack the deck against Trump. Trump's supporters are salt-of-the-earth folks. They're often "off the grid." My Uncle Bert in Flint and Aunt Jodie-May in West Virginia don't have internet, and they certainly don't have cellphones. Plenty of Americans haven't jumped on these bandwagons either. Cellphones have tiny buttons, are easy to lose, give you cancer, cost a ton of money, and are unnecessary if you have an old-fashioned wired phone. Most Americans are landline folk: hard-working, honest, rustic Luddites who would rather put their feet up and watch a VHS tape of For Love of the Game than surf the web and answer polls. Diligent voters like Bert and Jodie-May get ignored by liberal polls and FiveThirtyEight, while Obamaphone voters are grossly over-sampled. The pollsters are in for a surprise when the hidden landline voters swing the election.

4) The Cleveland Indians Lost

The Cleveland Indians are still losers. This all but ensures that Trump will win Ohio and its 18 electoral votes. The people of Ohio have been kicked in the junk yet again by Hillary and her liberal North Side Cubs. Set aside the fact that Donald once tried to buy the Cleveland Indians and move the franchise to Tampa for just a minute. Nerd political scientists believe that Cleveland's defeat will sour Ohio voters' perception of their well-being, increasing their desire for a break from the corrupt Clinton status quo. That's a boon for Donald.

5) Trump Notched a Key Endorsement from Yuengling

Thank you to Dick Yuengling for an amazing tour of the oldest brewery in the U.S! @Yuengling_Beer #PottsvillePA #MAGA pic.twitter.com/XrGVbbOiI3

— Eric Trump (@EricTrump) October 24, 2016

You heard that right folks. The brewers of one of America's finest ales have finally raised their voice and picked a candidate. Most lovers of beer were already in the tank for Trump anyway, but this key endorsement will likely motivate high turnout among bar-goers everywhere. That's bad news for noted alcoholic Hillary Clinton.

6) Hillary Clinton is a Demon from Hell

We knew she was dangerous, but not even I saw this one coming. The latest round of Wikileaks revelations were stunning. They confirmed the brilliant Alex Jones' suspicion that Crooked Hillary is an "abject, psychopathic, demon from Hell" who reeks of sulfur. Leaked emails have shown that Hillary's campaign manager is a fan of "Spirit Cooking," and regularly hosts perverse satanic rituals.

Folks, this is the biggest scandal since Trump shed light on Ted Cruz's connection to the murder of John F. Kennedy. This bombshell might help Hillary on the margins with atheist and satanist voters, but will undoubtedly put Hillary in an even deeper hole with Evangelical and religious voters, who worship Jesus and not Lucifer. That could flip states with God-fearing folk like Pennsylvania and Florida to Donald. Wow!

7) My Own Data Suggests Trump Enthusiasm is Surging 

Folks, everywhere I go I see higher enthusiasm for Donald than I do Crooked Hillary. There's way more Trump yard signs in Danville than Clinton signs, even accounting for the fact that my neighbor's punk kids keep stealing mine. But the true proof of Trump's surge comes for the "Honk for Trump" sign I installed near the road by my house. I can barely sleep anymore. All of hours of the day and night, people honk as they drive pass my sign to express their allegiance to Donald. Honks don't lie, folks!

Conclusion

Folks, I stand by my predictions. Trump will win. It's simply the only conclusion one can draw if you take time to gauge the nation's feelings about this election. Elections aren't about numbers, or data, or polls-plus versus polls-only. They're about people. People voting. People need a reason to turn off their TV, drive to a nearby church, and cast their ballot. Trump is the only candidate who makes people want to get out of their bed in the morning and vote. Barring any fraud or rigging, Trump will be the next President of the United States.

The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart. The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.

Forgot About Cleveland: TWTW's 2016 World Series Preview

Danville, Kentucky -- This is the World Series they said would never happen. Two underdogs enter, but only one team's Cinderella Story will be consummated with a fairy-tale happy ending. The Cleveland Indians haven't won a World Series in 68 years, whereas the Chicago Cubs haven't won a World Series in 108 years. Two cities, both alike in dignity, both alike in their decades long championship droughts.

On the one hand we have the Chicago Cubs. The 103-win superteam and darlings of major league baseball. An impeccable combination of sparkling young talents -- Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez -- and gritty veterans like Jon Lester, John Lackey, Ben Zobrist and Grandpa David Ross.

On the other hand are the Cleveland Indians: the underdogs of underdogs. The powers that be have bet against the Tribe every step of the way.

Take a look at crooked ESPN's playoff predictions:

The failing USA Today's predictions are no better:

Between the combined brain-trusts of ESPN and USA Today, more than 30 so-called 'experts' made MLB playoff predictions. Only 4 'experts' had Cleveland advancing out of the first round. Folks, I'll admit that even I under-estimated this team, although I did have no doubt they'd get past the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS.

How did everybody get the Indians so wrong?

Maybe they forgot about Mike Napoli, a man with a illustrious history of hitting clutch postseason knocks. Maybe they forgot about Coco Crisp, a veteran with the name of a cereal but the heart of a champion. Maybe they forgot about Josh Tomlin, the secret weapon of the Indians rotation and a more than adequate replacement for Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. Maybe they forgot about Rajai Davis, the speedy man who runs the basepaths like Crooked Hillary runs from FBI indictments. Maybe they forgot about unlikely contributors such as Ryan Merritt, a spot-starter who became the unexpected hero of ALCS Game 5 by throwing 4 and 1/3 innings of shutout baseball against a scary Blue Jays offense. They certainly forgot about ALCS MVP Andrew Miller, Cleveland's relief ace and throwback to the multi-inning closers of old like Mariano Rivera and Dennis Eckersley.

No matter what their reasons were for counting out Cleveland, the 'experts' don't appear to have learned their lesson. The Cubbies and their shiny UZR ratings and sterling starting rotation FIP are already heavy favorites to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy when all is said and done.

Nate Silver's World Series projection is out and the Chicago Cubs are an enormous favorite https://t.co/VC3SNChKEn pic.twitter.com/xftaRnCWwH

— Business Insider (@businessinsider) October 24, 2016

In other words (for non-degenerates), Vegas has the most likely outcome being the Cubs winning the World Series in 5 or 6 games. https://t.co/Yf5TTbk5q3

— Nick Camino (@NickCaminoWTAM) October 24, 2016

Folks, I'm not sold on the Cubs. Jon Lester can't throw to first; it cost him the AL Wild Card game in 2014, and it will probably cost him against the Indians, an excellent baserunning unit. Aside from Aroldis Chapman, their bullpen lacks saavy veterans. It was a mistake for them to let Joe Nathan go. In addition, the Cubs are still a cursed team, as the Curse of the Billy Goat has yet to be lifted. Meanwhile, LeBron James and the Cavaliers have shown that Cleveland is not cursed and laid to rest any doubts that the city of Cleveland is capable of winning championships. Most importantly, Cleveland has home-field advantage thanks to Johnny Cueto's implosion and Eric Hosmer's heroics in the 2016 All Star Game. Cleveland has some of the best fans in baseball. The Indians and their fans are everything that's right about America: they're politically incorrect (like our next president), they're blue-collar, and they're homegrown. Chicago North Siders, on the other hand, tend to be out-of-touch elitists like this:

Folks, my gut tells me the Indians will win. They've already overcome adversity and numerous injuries to key players like Salazar, Carrasco, and Yan Gomes. Even Trevor Bauer showed more grit than I ever imagined was possible, by attempting to play through a lacerated thumb that was bleeding profusely.

My gut tells me Cleveland's winning formula will continue to win: get some clutch hits, get 4 or 5 solid innings from your starters and then get ready for Miller Time.

It's a shame one of these teams will have to end their season with a historically awful championship drought still alive. In that sense, October baseball is a crueler mistress than the woman I met at a Sonic Drive-In in Smyrna, Tennessee. We were having an affair, and chose to cap off a weekend of infidelity with the fantastic eats a man can only find at America's best drive-in food joint. When I wouldn't share my Chili Cheese Tots with her, chaos ensued.

In a fit of rage, she reached for my phone without me looking and texted my wife, confessing to the tryst. And thus my fourth marriage was ended. The Cubs' magical season could meet a similarly heart-wrenching end if the Indians continue to win against all odds and all sabermetric logic. Just like a man can only legally have one wife, only one team will emerge from the World Series with their depressing drought dispelled. I wouldn't bet against Cleveland, the city that has already proved so many folks wrong.

Little Cowboys and Indians: the American League's Last Hope

Danville, Kentucky - Los Angeles, North Side Chicago, Cleveland. These are the cities with which we are to defend America from the Toronto Blue Jays, an upstart Canadian team that threatens to usurp America's past-time. It's not the set of cities I would've chosen were I to be tasked with selecting a club to serve as a bulwark against aggression from America's northern front. Los Angeles has grown opulent and soft in its self-adoration and dotage. The North Side of Chicago is inhabited mostly by affluent prep school kids. Cleveland has only recently learned how to win. These three cities do not inspire much confidence in America's ability to defeat Canada.

Their Canadian opponent is formidable. There is much to like about this Blue Jays team. I've been enamored with them for a few seasons now. They hit bombs. They play the game with passion: whether it's Josh Donaldson scoring the game-winning run on a mad dash to home plate on a throwing error, Kevin Pillar imitating Superman as he puts his body on the line diving for a deep fly-ball, Jose Bautista's bodacious bat flips, or Edwin Encarnacion flaunting an avian companion as he performs his customary trot around the base-paths after a dinger. Though they play for Canada, a country known for its modesty, humility, and good manners, these Blue Jays conduct themselves with a distinctively American swagger.

And yet, something is rotten in the province of Ontario. This is a team that refuses to let Cy Young winner and knuckleball virtuoso R.A. Dickey pitch in the playoffs. The hardened veteran won 20 games in 2012 and threw 200+ innings for 5 straight years, but is evidently not to be trusted as the team flirts with Toronto's first World Series title since Kurt Cobain was the most popular man in music. The team's abysmal mishandling of ace R.A. Dickey casts doubt on their worthiness of October glory.

The Blue Jays have betrayed R.A. Dickey, and must be stopped from winning the World Series. If you need another reason to fear the Blue Jays, consider known Canadian and JFK conspirator Ted Cruz: he will undoubtedly be rooting for his motherland's team. America is in a time of unprecedented political division, thanks to Hillary Clinton. America cannot now afford to lose to a commonwealth of the British crown. Allowing a team from a French-speaking nation to win THE AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES would deal an irreversible blow to American pride, prestige, self-confidence, and hegemony, guaranteeing 'another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange.' 

Only one man can stop the Toronto Blue Jays from obliterating the American-led international order and ushering in an era of Canadian dominance in the Northern Hemisphere: Josh Tomlin. 

Josh Tomlin may play for the Indians, but he's known as the Little Cowboy. It is only fitting that the man tasked with defending our favorite sport from Canadian conquistadors is nicknamed after the brave wranglers who brought American ruggedness to the uncivilized Western frontiers. More importantly, this is a man fit for the job. Canadian culture is one of dependence and sloth, thanks to their extensive European-style welfare state and socialized healthcare. Canadians love free stuff, and the Blue Jays are no different. The power-hitting prowess of the Blue Jays is real, but the Cleveland Indians can defeat them by refusing to give these Canadians the free stuff they have come to expect from big government. The Indians must be stingy: no walks, no free bases. Stinginess is a foreign concept to Canadians. 

Fortunately, stinginess is not a foreign concept to our friend Mr. Tomlin, a man that posted a sterling 13-9 win/loss record in 2016. He's fresh off of a gutsy outing against Boston in the ALCS where he allowed only 2 runs over 5 innings, notching his first ever post-season win. Tomlin pitched 174 innings this season, and unintentionally walked only 20 batters. If the Blue Jays are going to beat Tomlin, they'll have to earn it: having to earn and work for things instead of being gifted them by big government is a Canadian's worst fear. The inconsistent and distracted Trevor Bauer cannot defeat the Canadian menace. Neither can Corey Kluber and his pristine xFIP. Only Josh Tomlin can.

America has repelled invasions from our despotic, syrup-slurping Northern neighbors before, as recently as the War of 1812. We have met every challenge and conquered every adversary. The city of Cleveland already saved America once this year by stemming the tide of Steph Curry's Left-Coast Warriors. With the world watching and America's reputation on the line, Cleveland will valiantly preserve our union once more.

TWTW's 2016 ALDS Preview

Danville, Kentucky -- Boston once had a massacre, which in turn led Boston to host a Tea Party. That fine town audaciously launched a righteous revolution against the repressive British Crown. You can still see hints of that insurgent spirit any time Dustin Pedroia slides hard into second base, dirtying his home whites like a ragtag rebel might've muddied his militia apparel at the Battle of Lexington. It is a tenacious and indefatigable spirit that has animated American heroes from Boston's own John Adams to Ted Williams. The grit of grinders like Pedroia can still be found by those who know where to look for it; but the city is now better symbolized by overpaid softies like Drew Pomeranz and Pablo Sandoval, ex-patriots of the liberal elitist West Coast who have found a new home in the land of chowder and lobster. Boston used to be a city I could believe in; but no more.

Cleveland is a city I can and can't believe in. I believe in Cleveland's people, it's missing manufacturing jobs, it's symbolic figurehead LeBron James, it's willingness to host the 2016 Republican National Convention, and its scrappy youngsters Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin. I can't believe in Cleveland's shocking dismissal of clubhouse hero Juan Uribe, or their continued faith in Trevor Bauer, a nerd-boy who cares more about playing Pokemon and piloting drones than winning baseball games.

Cleveland doesn't believe in itself either: despite fielding a division winning team with World Series ambitions, the city has all but neglected the AL Central Champion Indians, leading to pathetic attendance figures in an otherwise magical season.

I can't believe in Boston, or Cleveland. But there is one man I can believe in: Rick Porcello. More importantly, Rick Porcello is a man who believes in Rick Porcello. I've written extensively about this kid, still only 27 years old and yet to hit his ceiling. Even in his darkest days, when he was public enemy #1 in Beantown, I never stopped believing, and neither did he.

The Sox giving Porcello a 4 year, $82 million extension might be the worst contract extension in baseball history. #RedSox #PorcelloSucks

— O (@TheOaty) July 30, 2015

Didn't ESPN write about how Porcello is going to be a Cy Young finalist? He sucks. That contract is one of the five worst in baseball.

— Ryan Landreth (@ryan_landreth) May 18, 2016

Holy fuck Porcello sucks

— Peacone36 (@Peacone36) May 22, 2016

After being reviled by Boston fans for more than a year, the rough-and-tumble kid from New Jersey is now a bonafide Cy Young candidate and sports a 22-4 Win/Loss Record that's prettier than Melania Trump. The fans can't get enough of him. The kid's got a sinker that sinks out of the strike-zone like Hillary Clinton sinks in the polls with each subsequent release of emails from Wikileaks. He's a groundball machine, more interested in getting his teammates involved in the game than putting on a show with strikeouts. He's stingy with walks: pounding the strike-zone with a precision matched only by the precision of Obama's unconstitutional drone strikes in Yemen and Pakistan.

Folks, I can't bet against Rick, and I can't bet against the Red Sox. The kid has 22 wins, and will be backed up by another man who has played postseason hero for Boston in the past: Clay Buchholz. Porcello and Buchholz are a hell of a 1-2 punch, a playoff rotation that far surpasses anything the injury-hobbled Indians will be able to compete with. Cleveland is hungry, but the ageless David Ortiz is hungrier.

Baseball is a team sport: but October is where heroes emerge. Porcello's teammate David Price is a perennial playoff choker; but Rick is about to set himself apart. This Autumn, Rick Porcello will achieve mythic status alongside past Red Sox greats like Pedro Martinez, future U.S. President Curt Schilling, and Derek Lowe. Underneath the bright lights of Fenway, a legend will be born.

Alcides Escobar Must Bat Lead-Off

Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, it didn't take long, but the spreadsheet gazers of the world are already questioning the wisdom of World Series Champion™  Ned Yost. Overreacting to a couple of games of lukewarm offensive production in April, folks are calling for ALCS MVP Alcides Escobar to be demoted from the lead-off spot of the batting order. The calls are growing louder and louder.

Royals have left 300 men on base tonight, oh and Escobar is NOT a leadoff hitter Ned!!!!!!

— Rob - Vegas34 (@RebelRob34) April 28, 2016

Even Omar is a better leadoff hitter than Escobar.

— Adam (@barretta816) April 28, 2016

Escobar should not be batting leadoff. Cute story in the playoffs. Get serious.

— Brian (@BrianMcGannon) April 28, 2016

For the love of God, get Alcides Escobar out of the leadoff spot. #Royals

— Ryan Landreth (@ryan_landreth) April 27, 2016

The fine folks at Baseball Prospectus KC are demanding it. Some dude from Topeka is demanding it. Even Jesse Newell, a great man and lover of Kansas Football, has criticized Mr. Escobar. But they're wrong.

It's a bigger over-reaction than the Dodd-Frank legislation passed by Congress in the aftermath of the '08 financial crisis. Like Dodd-Frank, any rash decision to displace Esky from the top of the Royals' lineup would both stymie productivity and introduce massive uncertainty.

Let's look at the likely alternatives, for starters.

JARROD DYSON

Folks, I love Jarrod. The man has speed. The man has swagger. He isn't afraid to bunt, steal, and stunt on fools; an all around nasty old-school player with an attitude that's hard to come by in the age of moneyball. However, putting Dyson in the lead-off spot makes no sense. Keeping Dyson's lefty bat in the #9 spot, Esky's righty bat in the #1 spot, and lefty Moose's bat in the #2 spot gives opposing managers headaches when it comes time to make late-game relief pitching changes based on righty/lefty match-ups. That's a huge edge for the boys in blue. Moreover, Dyson is right at home in the #9 spot -- it's like having a second lead-off hitter after the 1st inning. Dyson is putting up great numbers from the #9 spot this year, and looks very comfortable. It would be unwise to move Dyson away from a role where he is currently excelling.

ALEX GORDON

Putting Alex Gordon in the #1 spot would be a real Terry Francona move. Francona recently promoted DH Carlos Santana to the lead-off spot, citing his ability to get on base via plate discipline and walks. Terry Francona's team, the Indians, are currently in 3rd place. There's a reason why Ned just won a World Series while Terry is most well-known for running the Indians into the ground for several straight seasons. Folks, I know Gordon has a shinier OBP than Esky. But leadoff hitters aren't supposed to chase walks and clog the bases. The top of the lineup needs to be quick, and put the ball in play. Do the Royals win Game 1 of the 2015 World Series if Esky draws a walk instead of hitting a first-pitch inside-the-park home run? I doubt it.

I love Mr. Gordon. But he Ks too much for the lead-off spot, and the Royals need Gordon's power bat lower in the lineup, where he can drive in runs. Don't move Gordon. OBP is overrated. Give me a quick guy who can put the ball in play any day.

OMAR INFANTE

Folks, I'd defend Omar to the death. He's got more World Series experience than just about any player in baseball not on the San Francisco Giants. But Omar is a doubles machine. The Royals need Omar's doubles later in the batting order, to cash in base-runners and score runs.

CONCLUSION

Being a baseball player is just like any other job: a man needs certainty. I once worked on an oil rig. I loved drilling black gold, and I was damn good at it. I had great hand-eye coordination and could implement the drilling plans our petroleum engineers drew up, no matter how complicated or risky. But if you had changed my role -- taken away my job as a driller, and made me a Service Unit Operator, for instance -- I'd have failed miserably. I just don't know how to read and interpret all those thermometers, gauges, and pressure indicators, folks. A baseball team is like an oil-rig: it's a finely-tuned machine. You can't go switching key parts of a machine willy-nilly, unless you're trying to cause Deepwater Horizon 2.0. You could inadvertently destroy the entire chemistry of the Royals lineup if you take Esky out of the lead-off spot.

Alcides Escobar is an MVP, an All-Star Game starting shortstop, and a fantastic lead-off man. You'd have to have a very short memory to flirt with removing Esky from a role he thrives in.

Do these people not remember Alcides' clutch single in the 8th inning of ALDS Game 4, which kept the line moving and ultimately led to a season-saving rally?

Have the critics forgotten about Escobar's RBI single in the 3rd inning of ALCS Game 1, which ended up being the only run the Royals needed in a 5-0 victory?

What about Esky's sublime bunt single in the first inning of ALCS Game 4, setting the table for a Ben Zobrist 2-run bomb? That's prototypical lead-off man stylings, folks.

The first-pitch inside-the-park homer wasn't even Esky's finest offensive contribution in last year's World Series. Don't forget his RBI single and RBI triple in World Series Game 2. Or his RBI double -- a crucial insurance run -- in the decisive Game 5 of the 2015 World Series.

In the past two postseasons, Mr. Escobar has posted a .311 batting average, with 9 doubles, 3 triples, and 14 RBI. He's earned his spot as the lead-off hitter.

Fortunately, Ned is a man with patience. Ned knows that if Esky was good enough for the World Champion 2015 Royals, he'll be good enough for the 2016 Royals too. Just give him time. Don't mess with something that works. Batting Alcides Escobar at the top of the Royals lineup made Kansas City great. Those that want to make Kansas City great again should hope he stays there.

Free Billy Butler

Danville, Kentucky - Blockbuster Video stores are an artifact of a different America from an era long gone. An America where good manners, family-friendly entertainment, and face-to-face interaction were still valued. A man could take his son out for ice cream, then stop by the old neighborhood Blockbuster to rent a Nintendo 64 game and a VHS or two. Over the course of a summer, the underpaid teens working behind the counter became like family. They'd learn your favorite actors, your genre preferences, and stylistic tastes, offering you movie recommendations far more helpful than a Netflix algorithm. Best of all, Blockbuster was a truly communal experience. It gave me a feeling in my heart warmer than any fireball shot when I popped a VHS into my cassette player: if the previous renter had rewound the tape, it was a small gesture of brotherhood that made the whole rental process worthwhile. Folks didn't have to rewind the VHS -- they could free-ride and just pay a fee or something -- but taking the time to actually do so was an act of good Blockbuster citizenship that gave me faith in the American dream.

For these reasons and more, I used to love Blockbuster. Until one summer day in the late 90s. It was a July day like any other. I had just hopped into my '69 Ford with my youngest son, and taken him to Blockbuster. He returned a rental copy of Ken Griffey, Jr.'s Slugfest, a fantastic Nintendo 64 game. I told my son to pick out another video game, and proceeded to mull over my own viewing options. It was a familiar situation: internally debating whether to rent My Dog Skip or For Love of the Game. Unemployed and divorced, I was in the mood for a good cry, and knew one of these two movies would get the job done.

I was just about to make a decision, when my third wife and her new boyfriend entered Blockbuster to return a movie of their own. Feeling alienated and bashful, I hit the floor like it was a "stop, drop, and roll" fire drill, trying to avoid being seen. As I laid on the floor of the Danville Blockbuster, in the middle of the action/thriller isle, the coarse carpeting began to irritate my skin. Yet, nothing would irritate me more than what I overheard next. The friendly neighborhood kid working behind the counter asked my third wife and her boyfriend if they re-wound their copy of Notting Hill.

My third wife's new boyfriend said no. He broke the unwritten rules of Blockbuster; the social contract that was the connective glue of this fragile community of movie-lovers, united only by the mantra: Be Kind, Rewind.

Billy Butler is a man who wants to rewind. A man who wants a second chance. A man on the short list of great ballplayers who should be considered honorary members of the 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals™. Like Big Game James Shields, Brandon Finnegan, Raul Ibanez, and the elusive Josh Willingham, Country Breakfast helped guide the Royals to greatness in 2014 but didn't get to share in the glory of their 2015 World Series win. Billy could only watch from afar as the organization he grew up in won it all without him.

To the players, organization & ESPECIALLY the fans of KC: #Crowned never looked better! Congratulations 2015 World Champions Royals! @Royals

— Billy Butler (@BillyButlerOAK) November 2, 2015

Billy Butler should've been there in Queens on that November night, popping champagne and hoisting the championship trophy. As if being denied this catharsis wasn't enough pain for one lifetime, Billy Beane is now conspiring to rob Billy Butler of his one joy in life: hitting baseballs.

Demoted to a mere platoon bat -- only to be used against left handed pitching -- the Oakland Athletics have broken Country Breakfast's soul and spirit, reducing him to a lifeless shell of himself, like Jesse Pinkman in Nazi Todd's bare-life meth dungeon. Few things hurt more than knowing your ex-wife is dating a man not kind enough to rewind, but being denied at-bats by a fanatically sabermetric franchise is surely one of them.

Oakland Athletics, it's time to free Billy Butler. A man like him deserves to spend the twilight years of his career doing what he loves: hitting baseballs. Maybe Billy Beane doesn't appreciate a man born to knock in runs and rack up RBIs, but many teams still do. The hapless Cleveland Indians are still in need of a proven run-producer. Mr. Beane, give Mike Chernoff a call. Don't let a once-proud DH, who swatted 29 bombs and drove in 107 runs in 2012, spend the rest of his career withering on the bench. Don't let Billy go the way of Blockbuster: a desolate ruin of a once great dream.

Why Francisco Lindor Must Bunt for His Life

Danville, Kentucky -- Every once and a while, an idea bounces around the sabermetric echo chamber that's so patently absurd, it begs to be refuted. The notion that Francisco Lindor needs to stop bunting is one such argument.

Lindor is a great player. I've taken interest in him since his minor league days, and was fortunate enough to witness his first major league hit (and goofy tumble in between first and second base) in-person. But Lindor is now under fire from the spreadsheet-gazers. He broke two of the Ten Commandments of Fangraphs: never be a good teammate or sacrifice bunt. When Tito Francona weighed in on the issue recently, it sparked an outcry:

Indians manager Terry Francona, on Lindor using sacrifice bunts to move runners: pic.twitter.com/baVm30xV1F

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) March 15, 2016

And I mean an outcry. My twitter feed is full of articles about why this poor kid is ignorant and misguided for trying to advance a runner. (See the following articles: [1][2][3])

The anti-bunting argument goes as follows: Lindor is a very good hitter (no argument here) and shouldn't give away free outs because it decreases his team's run expectancy. By this logic, the sacrifice bunt is a selfish rally-killing move that is detrimental to the team's scoring probabilities. It's the type of argument that sounds superficially plausible if you ignore how the game is actually played on the field. It's the type of argument made by people who have never been on a baseball field, down by one run, with a sense of fierce urgency in their heart as they try to put their team in a position to win.

I had to chuckle to myself when August Fagerstorm wrote:

in the games in which Lindor attempted a bunt, the Indians, who finished the season above .500, went 7-10

I thought it was no longer politically correct to cite win/loss records? Isn't win/loss record an archaic, meaningless stat? The problem is, when you look at the results, Lindor's bunting was actually quite helpful to the Tribe.

The Record Speaks for itself: Lindor Must Bunt

You can denigrate Lindor's decision-making with all manor of stats. I'm a more results oriented guy, so I decided to look at the actual outcome of Lindor's sac-bunting. According to baseball reference, Mr. Lindor laid down 13 sacrifice bunts last year. Unlike team spreadsheet, I decided to revisit the game-logs before issuing a verdict on whether or not Francisco is well-served by continuing the practice. I was startled by how successful Frankie was at bunting.

June 22nd, vs. the Tigers. Lindor advances Jason Kipnis to 3rd base. Michael Brantley hits single, Kipnis scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

July 5th, vs. the Pirates. Lindor advances Kipnis to 3rd base. Brantley hits single, Kipnis scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

August 3rd, vs. the Angels. Lindor advances Ramirez to 2nd base. Brantley hits single, Ramirez scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked. In fact, judging by Carlos Santana's propensity to K, it's a good thing Lindor advanced Ramirez to 2nd.

August 8th, vs. the Twins. Lindor advances Jose Ramirez to 2nd base. Michael Brantley singles, Ramirez scores. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

August 13th, vs. the Yankees. Lindor advances Giovanny Urshela to 3rd base and Jose Ramirez to 2nd base. A Brantley lineout and Santana single score both runners. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked. 



 August 25th, vs. the Brewers. Lindor advances Kipnis to 3rd base. Brantley walks. A Santana double and Lonnie Chisenhall single scores both runners. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

August 30th, vs. the Angels. Lindor advances Kipnis to 3rd base. Brantley scores Kipnis. Rally not killed. Verdict: the bunt worked.

Conclusion

Surprising, isn't it? Judging by the tone of the Lindor bunting debate, you'd think he was haphazardly giving away outs, single-handedly thwarting the Indians offense. An analysis of THE ACTUAL GAMES, rather than a spreadsheet, reveals that in 7 of his 13 sacrifice bunt attempts, the Indians scored. That's a better than 50% success rate. Given that baseball is a game of inches, I'll take those runs produced by Frankie's selflessness. You could always gamble -- letting Lindor swing freely instead of bunting -- but that opens up the possibility of hitting into a double play and makes it more likely that you strand the runner. For a team with documented RISP-struggles like the Tribe, it makes sense to bunt and score at least one run.

What about the 6 times that Lindor's sacrifice bunt did not result in an Indians run? That's on the people batting behind him in the lineup. I've said for a while that the Indians lack of RBI-production will be the bane of their World Series hopes. If you can't score a runner from second with one out, that speaks to the team's slugging deficiencies, not the wisdom of Lindor's decision to bunt. Lindor can lead a horse to water, but he can't make it drink, especially if this horse isn't clutch. This problem could be easily fixed by the Indians acquiring Matt Kemp, but that's an argument for another day.

Sacrifice bunting is part of the game. You want to know who else sacrifice bunts alot? 2015 American League Championship Series MVP and All-Star shortstop Alcides Escobar, of the World Champion Kansas City Royals™., who boasted 11 sacrifice bunts to his name in 2015. You can't blame Frankie for trying to emulate the best. Lindor taking advice on bunting strategy from baseball bloggers is a little like Donald Trump taking advice from Marco Rubio on how to run a successful presidential campaign.

I encourage those disparaging Lindor's bunts to actually look at the historical record instead of run expectancy charts. Lindor has gotten the job done. Undoubtedly, Lindor's success is part of why Francona has been reluctant to reign him in despite the protestation of saber-inclined Indians fans. I trust Lindor's judgement. I think you should too.

What a teammate.