TWTW's 2017 March Madness Preview

Danville, Kentucky -- It's that time of year again, folks. The time of year where kids leave it all on the court. The time of year when boys become men. The time of year where my panicked wife frantically calls the police for information about my whereabouts after my phone dies while watching basketball at Buffalo Wild Wings for days at a time. It's March Madness time, folks.

Unlike Rachel Maddow, I won't waste your time with a twenty-minute buildup culminating in nothing. I'll cut right to the chase. Here are the games to watch during the first round of this year's tournament:

Maryland (6) versus Xavier (11)

Folks, I'll be upfront that I have a slight bias for the Musketeers, a scrappy team hailing from Cincinnati. But this game has huge upset potential. This Maryland team is soft; softer than the mushy interior concealed within every terrapin's protective shell. This is to be expected from Maryland, a soft state. I once spent a night at the Caroline County Department of Corrections for using non-standard crabbing technology in violation of state regulations. Maryland's crabbing scene isn't the only thing that's overrated: their basketball team has had some bad letdown losses to the likes of Penn State and Nebraska. The Musketeers will get it done.

Michigan (7) versus Oklahoma State (10)

This is another intriguing can't miss game. Brad Underwood is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Michigan, on the other hand, is the school that passed on the blue collar fierceness of Rick Pitino en route to irrelevance for most of the 2000s. Stillwater is a much tougher town than Ann Arbor. Take the upset, folks.

Cincinnati (6) versus Kansas State (11)

I'm taking K-State here folks. Don't get me wrong - I'm a Cincy man through and through; the city that brought us Pete Rose, the best chili on the planet, and Neil H. McElroy, the Defense Secretary under President Eisenhower. But K-State has so much momentum after falling just a point short of winning the Big 12 tournament when nobody expected them to. Don't best against momentum, folks.

Dayton (7) versus Wichita State (10)

This is the crowned jewel of first round match-ups during this year's tournament, featuring two of my favorite teams. Wichita State and Dayton are teams that love to beat Ohio State; both of them handed the Buckeyes shocking Ls in 2013 and 2014 respectively. I have nothing but respect for Dayton; it's a great area, with one of the best Taco Bell restaurants I've ever been to - this place was clean as a whistle. But pick the underdog here, folks. Not that Wichita should be underdogs; they've been criminally under-seeded by the crooked NCAA elites that want to lock out small schools from the competition. The Shockers are a team that could run the table at this tournament.

Teams to Watch:

West Virginia: The Mountaineers are a team on the upswing, fresh off of an excellent Big 12 tournament where the 'experts' thought a Kansas Jayhawks victory was a fait accompli. This team plays with such tenacity, using the full court press for entire game to grind down the willpower of their opponents. I think this is the year they make a deep run. They say the Appalachian mountains are alive with the sound of coal mining once more, folks. They're bringing home some hardware this March too.

Purdue: Purdue is another blue collar team that is going to turn some heads. This is the school run by Mitch Daniels; former Republican governor of Indiana who handed over control of the state to our current Vice President, Mike Pence. The Boilermakers are not to be trifled with.

Bring Carmelo to Cleveland

Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, I do not speak Chinese. I made a point of avoiding foreign language classes during high school. Why learn how to speak like some foreigner when you could be taking shop class, learning how to build stuff with your own bare hands? Moreover, learning Chinese (or any other non-American language) is utterly unnecessary for a man like myself with no plans to leave the United States (or even the Eastern Time Zone). With jobs rapidly returning to the United States thanks to Trump, there is no longer any business rationale for learning the tongue of Middle Kingdom either.

Yet, there is one word from the Chinese language that every American should know and internalize: 危机.

This is the Chinese word for "crisis." It is composed of two characters; the character that signifies "danger" and the character that signifies "opportunity." Out of crisis comes opportunity.

Folks, the Cleveland Cavaliers are in crisis. Kevin Love blew out his knee. He will likely miss the rest of the regular season. When he returns he may be a hollow shell of himself, representing a huge question mark for the Cavaliers as they attempt to defend their NBA title. The last thing the Cavaliers need is for one of their key pieces to be hobbled as they make a push for a second consecutive NBA championship against a formidable Golden State Warriors team that has added the traitorous but highly talented Kevin Durant. The Warriors cared more about breaking regular season records than winning rings last year, but that might not be the case in 2017. The Cavaliers will need to be at full strength. They need Carmelo Anthony of the New York Knicks.

Folks, Carmelo has already replaced the injured Kevin Love on the Eastern Conference All Star team. It's time for him to take Love's spot on the Cavaliers' roster as well. You have to fight fire with fire. The Warriors think adding Durant gives them an advantage? The Cavs should re-raise by acquiring Melo, one of the league's premier scoring threats.

It makes too much sense, folks. Carmelo has played in blue states like Colorado and New York his entire career, a sad reality that has limited his potential. Playing in a hard-working red state like Ohio would be a welcome change of scenery.

Mr. Anthony is a three time Olympic gold-medalist and a patriot. He led the Syracuse Orangemen to an NCAA title en route to becoming the NCAA Tournament's "Most Outstanding Player" in 2003, a simpler year when nobody had heard of kale or quinoa. Carmelo guided his college team to a title; when Kevin Love's UCLA Bruins lost in the Final Four, he abandoned ship. I know which guy I'd rather call my teammate.

In addition, playing in Cleveland would fix many of Carmelo's chemistry issues. He would no longer be playing in the shadow of the tyrannical Phil Jackson. Jackson keeps trying to change Melo, to turn him into a player he's not. Folks, as a man who has been divorced four times, let me tell you that people are who are they are. For a relationship to work, you have to accept your partner unconditionally, faults included. If you try to change people, you'll only bring misery upon yourself. If the twice-divorced Jackson had a few more divorces under his belt, he'd probably have figured this out by now. Melo has chafed as Jackson has attempted to bully and intimidate him into changing his game by moving away from isolation plays. If Melo were traded to Cleveland, he'd no longer have anything to prove to Jackson. Indeed, Melo could escape the spotlight - the Cavaliers will always be LeBron's team.

Trading Carmelo makes sense for the Knicks as well. The injured Kevin Love will not help them much in the short term, but in the long term they will have brought a ceasefire to the Jackson-Anthony Cold War while obtaining a player that they can rebuild around. It's time for the Melo era of the Knicks to end; the Ron Baker era must now begin. By trading Carmelo, the Knicks can move past the era of constant feuding between players and the front office, and begin an era characterized by players that simply show up and do their jobs, like millions of other Americans do every day without fanfare or renown. No player better encapsulates this blue-collar lunch-pail mentality than the inveterately gritty Ron Baker, proud product of Wichita State University. By clearing their roster of high-profile tabloid characters like Anthony (and eventually the aging and ineffective Derrick Rose) the Knicks can give folks like Ron Baker the playing time they deserve and bring some heartland-raised common sense to their team in the process.

The Cavaliers and Knicks both face a crisis. The injury of Kevin Love has put the Cavaliers' title defense in grave jeopardy. The Knicks organization faces a crisis of confidence as the war between Jackson and Anthony escalates. Both sides need to remember that out of crisis comes opportunity. Make it happen, James Dolan and Dan Gilbert. Bring Carmelo to Cleveland.

TWTW's March Madness Takes

Danville, Kentucky -- March: a month that begins with wanton consumption of Shamrock Shakes and Irish Whiskey. March: a month that ends with several straight weeks spent at my local Buffalo Wild Wings watching college basketball. It's a thing of beauty. With golden foamy beer on my right and shiny sauced-drenched boneless chicken wings on my left, I feel at one with the universe as the drama of college basketball plays out before my eyes on multiple high-definition big screen TVs. From this perfect vantage point, I can see seniors scrap for survival while mid-major underdogs prove to the world that they truly belong amongst the world's top collegiate athletes. More importantly, the stirring story-lines of the NCAA tournament offer a brief respite from the banal drudgery of my middle-aged, divorced existence.

Lots of nerds will offer lots of hot takes about the tournament. They'll cite Kenpom, eFG%, PER and all manor of statistics as they offer advice on how to fill out your bracket. What these number-crunchers don't understand is that the glorious March tradition of cannot be explained or predicted by looking at a team's Pythagorean win/loss record. March Madness is like the gladiatorial contests of ancient Rome: statistics mean nothing when a scrappy Cinderella team like 2012 Norfolk State is determined to defy the odds in stunning fashion.

Don't trust the metrics. Trust your own eyes. Here are my thoughts on March Madness. Fill out your brackets accordingly.

Don't Sleep on Bakersfield

Bakersfield is not like the rest of California. A solitary bulwark of working class values in an otherwise irredeemably blue state, Bakersfield has been at the receiving end of the gut-punch that is globalization and unfettered free trade. It's Bakersfield that bears the brunt of Los Angeles' profligate air pollution, boasting the worst air-quality in the country. Bakersfield is one of America's top energy producing cities, where many folks' economic well-being lives or dies on the oil rig. The recent crash in gasoline prices has hit these good folks hard; the only thing they are holding on to is the dream of the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners making a run at March Madness glory.

And let me tell you, the people of Bakersfield are good people. My Uncle Truman, named after the last president truly tough enough to win a war, has lived there his whole life. Bakersfield is a hard-working city, where people go to premier watering-holes like Goose Loonies Tavern after a long day at the oil rig. Bakersfield is one of the few cities to stand up against the forces of globalization that are holding back American ingenuity and innovation. In 1993, Donald Trump spoke out against NAFTA at the Cal State Bakersfield campus. In 2016, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield endorsed Trump as the candidate most likely to energize the Republican Party. Bakersfield is ground zero for NAFTA's devastation, but this city is also where NAFTA will meet its final defeat.

The proletarian grit of the Bakersfield Roadrunners doesn't show up on a Kenpom spreadsheet. Oklahoma (2) versus CSU Bakersfield (15) has major upset potential, for those of you at home filling out brackets. Oklahoma's recent defeat in the Big 12 tournament at the hands of the scrappy full-court pressing West Virginia Moutaineers bodes ill for the Sooners' chances against the similarly feisty Roadrunners. If Bakersfield pulls a page from genius coach Bob Huggins' playbook, it could be a long night for OU, a team that shoots way too many threes. Bakersfield, fresh off a clutch buzzer-beating win in the WAC championship game, has all the momentum. The Roadrunners play a high-intensity, physical brand of defense that could very well thwart jump-shot reliant players like Buddy Hield. Don't bet against the Roadrunners.

Baylor Bears: Young, Scrappy, Hungry

The Baylor Bears have TWTW. Taurean Prince was once a commit to LIU-Brooklyn. I'm not sure what LIU stands for, but Prince stands for winning. He now projects to be a first round NBA draft pick? How did he do it? By spending his summer in the gym instead of playing Xbox One Live.

Then they have Rico Gathers. He's planning to play in the NFL. Baylor has a pro day for the NFL. Lots of kids skip class to go to parties. Rico is skipping pro day to go play in the tournament. What a player - he cares more about the team he's committed to than having "measurables" for Roger Goodell. With a matchup against Yale nerds in the first round, don't bet against the Bears.

Wichita State Seniors: Experience Counts

The Shockers are a team so good I can't believe Kenpom likes them. There's a lot to like about the Shockers: they have senior veteran leadership, tons of tournament experience, and great chemistry. Evan Wessel, Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are not only top tier talents, but best friends. They've been to the big dance before. Most important of all, the Shockers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being disrespected by the selection committee with an 11 seed. On paper, Wichita State probably wasn't as good as the Kansas Jayhawks team they beat in the 3rd round of the tournament last year. But Wichita State had something that doesn't show up on paper: hustle and friendship. I like this team to make a deep run.

Greg Marshall even turned down job offers to coach this team. Coach Marshall knew he could head to Alabama or some other state that also has great seafood. Instead, he realized you can still get great seafood in Kansas if you just know where the right Red Lobster is located. Marshall knows where the right wins are in the tournament. Take them to advance.

KU: A Team in Need of 2's

The Kansas Jayhawks are another team that is difficult to pick against. They have Shocker-esque chemistry and camaraderie.

My buddy in Lawrence just saw Devonte Graham and Tyler Self at @BWWings. The team that wings together wins together. #MarchMadness

— The Will To Win (@TWTWsports) March 14, 2016

They've also got a ton of momentum on their side, coming fresh off an authoritative romp through the Big 12 tournament. Yet, I have my reservations about this team. Long story short, they shoot too many 3's. The folks calling for KU to take more threes, Five Thirty Eight included, are dead wrong. Unfortunately, Bill Self seems to have listened to them. I've never understood the second-guessing nerds who think they can design a better offense than 12-time Big 12 champion Bill Self. There's a reason Bill Self is the coach, and there's a reason his critics are mostly bloggers. The KU three-pointer debate is often framed as a forced choice between chucking up threes and feeding the ball to Perry Ellis down low. Folks, I know the perfect middle ground: KU needs to stop being afraid of taking mid-range two-pointers.

I think there is big upset potential if KU has to face Connecticut. Connecticut is angry they were left out of a major conference. It's why they won the tournament in 2013 despite having nowhere near the best players - that team needed overtime in the round of 64 to beat St. Joe's before winning the whole ship.

The House Tom Izzo Built: This is (March) Madness

Folks, nobody does more with less than Tom Izzo. His recruits aren't as flashy or beloved by metrics as some other schools, but his great in-game managing ensures that the Spartans get the most out of the roster that they have. The "snub factor" I described with Wichita State is also at play here with MSU -- Izzo and his boys know they're a #1 seed, and will be pumped up as they attempt to prove the selection committee wrong. This could be the year Izzo gets Michigan State a second NCAA Championship.

Conclusion

You could spend hours creating a bracket by analyzing luck ratings, home/road splits, and strength of schedule numbers. Or you can go with your gut. The NCAA tournament is predictably unpredictable. But there is one thing I can confidently predict: narrative matters.

Affordable Electricity: In Defense of Mike Pelfrey

Danville, Kentucky -- Our society takes electricity for granted. It keeps our houses warm in winter, and cools them down in summer. Electricity keeps the freezer icy so we can have chilled Fireball on demand. Electricity brought us the gift of Buffalo Wild Wings, and its techno-utopian panoply of massive plasma-screen televisions; so that no man would be forced to miss out on a pivotal sporting event while using the facilities. Each successive generation of Americans tries to guarantee that the country we bestow upon the next generation is even greater than the one we inherited from our mothers and fathers. My generation is able to simultaneously utilize a Buffalo Wild Wings restroom and watch a baseball game, thanks to the wisdom of previous generations of Americans and the miracle of affordable electricity.

Affordable electricity: a phrase that perfectly describes right-handed pitcher Mike Pelfrey, yet seems quaint in the age of Obama and his energy-strangling regulations. Mike Pelfrey, who once donned the lightning-yellow attire of the Wichita State Shockers, knows all about electricity.

Pelfrey Will Shock his Doubters

Make no mistake: a brief look at Pelfrey's resume and his pitching arsenal reveals a man that is both electric and affordable. Financially speaking, 2 years and 16 million dollars is a small price to pay for a man that will anchor a Detroit rotation that was woefully over-reliant on untested farmhands like Buck Farmer, Kyle Ryan, and Shane Greene last season. Signing Pelfrey is a slick depth move that will give youngbloods like Matt Boyd and Michael Fulmer time to cut their teeth in the minor leagues.

His arsenal is impressive as well. With his Tommy John surgery now further back in the rear-view mirror, his velocity was up last season. He throws his fastball hard and his offspeed pitches soft, featuring a wicked splitter and sinker that keeps hitters off balance. Mr. Pelfrey stands to be a major beneficiary of the recently-improved Tigers defense as well.

In spite of the signing's obvious logic, the acquisition of Mike Pelfrey by the Detroit Tigers has become one of the most maligned moves of the offseason, with the basement-dwellers at Fangraphs calling it the #9 worst move of the offseason. Eno Sarris and his disciples disparage the Pelf's xFIP, claiming that his Ks are declining faster than Rubio's chances at becoming the Republican nominee.

Two years for the worst pitcher in baseball by one of the most important stats … https://t.co/elDysCxpFE Congratulations, Tigers!

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) December 4, 2015

Metrics don't like him; people who watch the game with their own two eyeballs do. I'm a longtime fan of Pelf, and considered him All-Star worthy last year. The Tiger scouts know what they saw when they told Al Avila to sign him. Even Dartmouth nerd Brad Ausmus got it right when he said the Pelfrey signing was based on "the eye test."

It would be a mistake more grave than hosting a private email server to believe that Pelfrey has nothing to contribute to the 2016 Tigers. Like the 2016 Tigers, the 2015 Twins were pronounced dead on arrival by the pre-season projections. When the 2015 Twins defied the proclamations of nerds and outperformed their projections, it was in no small part due to Pelfrey's suave stylings and steady leadership. Thanks to Pelfrey's contributions the 2015 Twins had a winning record and were playoff contenders, finishing second-place in the AL Central after every analyst (other than me) pegged them as a last-place team. There isn't an arm in the league you'd rather have on your side if your season depends on proving the nerds wrong.

Mike is a Man of Character with a Proven Track Record

Not only can Pelfrey beat the odds: he can beat the Royals.

The 2016 Tigers need to beat the 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals™ if they want to contend. Fortunately for the Tigers, Mike Pelfrey has been able to do what David Price, Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom couldn't do: beat the Royals. The Twins were undefeated in Mr. Pelfrey's 3 starts versus Kansas City last season, including a merciless shutout against the team that would eventually take the crown. Compare that to supposed ace Chris Sale; the White Sox lost both his starts versus the Royals last season. The path to the AL Central pennant runs through Kansas City, an aggressive hitting team that doesn't strikeout or walk. Against a team like that, you need a guy like Pelfrey who can produce weak contact and let the defense do the rest.

More important than Pelfrey's velocity or his ground-ball percentage is his fortitude. Born and raised in Wichita, Kansas -- a city I like to think of as the Detroit of the Heartland because of its manufacturing acumen -- Mr. Pelfrey is a man who knows rust, weathered iron, and billowing smoke stacks like the back of his hand. He's an underdog man from an underdog city. He will fit in well playing in the Motor City. This is a man who has stayed true to his roots; he was a Met, but there are no New York Values here -- just good old fashioned Mid West decency and work ethic.

Work ethic is perhaps the singularly most discounted factor in an era of STEAMER, ZiPs, and FIP. A man's K% or HR/FB ratio may regress, but work ethic doesn't. Hard work is what made America great, and it is what will make America great again. In lesser countries, wantonly consuming electricity with countless televisions in a sports bar would be considered excessive. But in America, it is my God given right to drunkenly bumble into a restroom full of flat screen TVs that are covered in the buffalo-sauce fingerprints of the great men who came before me. I believe in Buffalo Wild Wings. I believe in America. I believe in Mike Pelfrey.