Shut Down Duke Basketball

Danville, Kentucky - How did it come to this? Two weeks ago, Coach K was ready to lead the boys of Durham to another championship. Today, he should be ready to hand in Duke's resignation letter.

Jay Williams, bereft of knowing what would happen to Duke baketball, proudly representing his University before Grayson Allen ruined it for everyone

Duke basketball is a storied program. They feature some of my favorite players, like Jay Williams, Shane Battier, and Elton Brand. Those men are proven winners. They gave it their all on the court, and Elton Brand even stared in an episode of the last great Disney show, "The Jersey."

But Grayson Allen must go. We know of his crimes. Hopefully his resemblance to those that went after Kennedy is not true. 

Some would surmise that a man who so frequently calls for a ban or resignation does this once again with the ease of throwing away a Panera gift card. But I understand what it means to say Dak Prescott should resign, and I'm so upset while writing what must be written, I can't even link to my brilliant piece today calling for the deportation of millions of robots.

Folks, I do want to add some credibility to my insight. I was the one who rightfully said the Thunder should not resign Kevin Durant. And look at them now, Russell Westbrook may average a triple double for the first time since Oscar Robertson and the dream of Goldwater '64. And look at the Warriors, they're not going to win 73 games again. They're worse. The Thunder are better. And if you'd read me, you'd know this.

But anyone can get lucky once. I've gotten lucky many times, and in the bathroom of many Pizza Hut restaurants no less. Nobody is right more than I am because I only talk about what I know: fast food, politics, sports, life, religion, love, pop culture, and miscellaneous.  Few called the election. I did. I correctly predicted 49 of 50 states. I said the Royals would win the A.L. Central in 2015, and predicted they'd win the ALCS in six games and the World Series in five. Meanwhile, Fangraphs focused on mean variance or some other shit and took the 'not Royals'. I said the Blue Jays would win the A.L. East in 2015. In August of 2015 when the Nate Silver crowd said Verlander was done, I noted he'd be a winner again.

How did it come to this? 

And as I've said: Grayson Allen must go. Allen has tripped not one, not two, and not even three players. Sure, the liberal media says he's tripped three guys. This is the same liberal media that said Donald Trump was going to lose. The same liberal media that said Chipotle wouldn't make us all sick. Chipotle has made us sick, and Grayson Allen is likely to trip a man to death if he's not stopped.

Allen has ruined a special season for Duke. Marquis Bolden is simply a player, folks. You can throw away the stat sheet with him. I've had love at first sight nine times. And noticing a great prospect is like that. When I first saw LeBron James, I just knew: hey, this guy is going to be good. Yet again, I was right. Luke K. is also the same way. Excellent player. He has incredible gristle (grit + hustle). Jason Tatum shoots like Dirk Nowitzki. A skill he developed by shooting a basketball. Imagine if Allen had done that, instead of tripping, folks.

This is when someone would say: Will, why not just ban Grayson Allen? Because Duke is a team. College basketball is a team sport. It's about 13 men who work day in and day out for literally zero money. They don't want any of Coach K's $7 million plus salary. No, they do it for the team.

And as a team rises together, they fall together. Grayson Allen has committed an awful offense. And now the whole team must pay. The rest of the team has done nothing wrong. Coach K has never done anything wrong in his entire life. But he too must pay. You see, folks, when our quarterback was caught with moonshine before the Kentucky state football semi-finals in 1974, no doubt precipitated by the unfair targeting of Richard Nixon in the Watergate investigation, he was suspended. But in a way, we all were because we were all at the party and also suspended. But had we not been at the party, we would have been suspended anyway. Our coach wouldn't have let us play in the game without our quarterback because we were a team. Duke is now in that same moment.

How Duke could disband their program is not easy. Coach K. is a true professional though. He'll think of the right way to handle this, which is why he wasn't focused on saying what penalty Grayson Allen would face. He was probably starting to think about dismantling a program he built. And now, a program he'll close.

The end of the night can be looked at a few different ways. Sure, sometimes the bar closes and deprives us of that one last series of fireball shots. One can sulk about that. One can become consumed by that. One can hate because of that. Or one can start anew. Don't cry for Duke basketball's end. Celebrate that it only took the life of Duke basketball to end Grayon Allen's tripping.

The Thunder Must Not Resign Kevin Durant

Danville, Kentucky - As the final days of the Carter administration came to a close, I pushed myself to finally be able to eat three taco 10 packs at taco bell for lunch. I knew I could do it. I had the dream. I had the ability. And I had the hope.

But I couldn't do it. As taco 24 became 25, something hit me. I was not going to be able to do it. Sure, I assumed if I gave myself another chance, I'd do it. So I did. Another 15 dollars at the local Mexican restaurant, and I had dreams of finishing my promise much as President elect Reagan had promised to free the hostages in Iran. President Reagan fulfilled his promise. I didn't fulfill mine.

The Thunder are like my dream of eating so many tacos, not able to happen. They get close. They lose in the finals. They lose in the Conference finals. They don't get close: They lose in the first round, and they lose without even making the playoffs. The Thunder cannot keep doing this.


Sometimes the hardest time to rebuild is when the house is still standing. But if you don't rebuild while the house is up, you can end up like the 76ers. That may be unfair, but Sam Preste's love of analytics has me worried the East Coast values embraced in Philly may come to the lovable tract of land the Thunder play in along I-35.

Durant cannot win a title. He's not LeBron. He's not Steph. He's not James Jones. Those guys are winners. Durant sadly has not been. He's a nice man. A good man, but not the man they need.

Westbrook should be given the chance. When a company fails for too long, it's C.E.O. should resign. At least that used to happen, until NAFTA allowed any C.E.O. to stay in power by off-setting his failures with lower wages through offshoring jobs to Canada. Westbrook needs to be the C.E.O. of the Thunder. He's won on the Olympic team, and he's gotten close as the #2 guy constantly. He could be the winner as the #1 guy.

Perhaps most importantly, Durant did nothing to stop the trade of James Harden. When I was a union boss, I didn't let our company sell our workers out. Durant let the Thunder sell James Harden. That alone was a fireable offense.

The time to let Durant walk is not easy. He's well-known and has a family. It won't be easy for him to lose his job. But winning isn't easy. Doing what's right is hard.

Two Against One Ain't Fair: Why Cruz and Kasich Are Sore Losers

Danville, Kentucky -- In Fifteenth Century Europe, good friends were hard to come by. The Teutonic Knights, a scrappy band of warrior-monks, found this out the hard way. After this gritty, young Catholic military-religious order got screwed in Papal Court, they tried to assert control of the Daugava River by force, launching an invasion of Poland in 1409. Thus began the Polish–Lithuanian–Teutonic War. It should’ve been a historic triumph for the Teutonic Order and its faithful adherents; but the treacherous Poles, with their backs against the wall, teamed up with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania – turning the tide of the battle. Defeated, and forced to pay war reparations to the Polish-Lithuanian usurpers, the Teutonic Knights never recovered their former glory and strength.

Jan Matejko, Bitwa pod Grunwaldem

In World War II, we saw a similar strategy at work. The Japanese, Nazis, and fascist Italians knew they couldn’t beat Uncle Sam by themselves. So they created an unholy alliance and plunged the globe into a Second World War.

It’s a tried and true strategy – it’s been deployed by Batman, Superman, and many other important historical figures. "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em," they always say. It was most recently employed by LeBron James; when LeBron couldn’t win in his home city of Cleveland, he took his talents to Miami with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh – starting the NBA’s talent arms race, which is still distorting parity throughout the league.

The team-up strategy is especially dangerous when deployed in the democratic context – when Omar Infante of the 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals™ was on the cusp of being democratically selected to represent the American League at Second Base, sabermetric nerds and opponents of egalitarianism across the nation pooled their votes to elect José Altuve instead. Democracy was subverted, and Omar was denied his rightful opportunity to play second base alongside the league’s finest. Folks, we can’t let what happened to Omar happen to Donald.

The common denominator: only losers team up when they can’t take down a winner by themselves. Lyin’ Canada Ted Cruz, he of JFK assassination fame, and Borin’ John Kasich, he of manufacturing job destruction fame, know that they don’t have the chops to beat Donald the old fashioned way. Neither one of them can get the required 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination. Yesterday, crybaby sore losers Cruz and Kasich officially announced they are teaming up to obstruct Donald.

I'm not opposed to teamwork or teaming up in the abstract. I team up with my nephew every Tuesday night, to vanquish mouth-watering appetizers and tantalizing entrees as a team. Nobody is a bigger fan of the Applebee's Two-For-Twenty than me. When I team up with my nephew at Applebee's, everybody wins.

Unfortunately for Cruz and Kasich, losers don’t win. Winners win. And Donald is a winner. Donald can’t be stopped – not by parliamentary tricks, contested conventions, liberal pundits, RINOs, or the Koch-Soros-Bush GOP establishment illuminati. Donald is unstoppable, with my internal polling projections predicting a landslide sweep of the remaining delegates, but the RINOs in Washington like Cruz and Kasich will stop at nothing to stop him. They don’t care if they destroy democracy and ignore the will of the people in the process. They can’t win, so now their sole mission -- democracy be damned -- is to stop Donald from winning. It’s a total loser move, folks. I know Ted Cruz’s dad was too busy trying to kill Kennedy to be a real father, but surely he taught his son that two against one isn’t fair? In the 2016 Republican primary, like 15th Century Europe, good friends are hard to come by.

Teaming up never pays off if you're a loser. Poland and Lithuania won control of the Daugava River, but the Teutonic Knights will be remembered as one of the coolest quasi-religious militias that medieval Europe ever knew. Germany, Japan, and Italy started World War II, but Uncle Sam finished it. After teaming up with Bosh and Wade, LeBron left Miami with his tail between his legs and only two NBA championships. The unholy alliance of sabermetric nerds stopped Omar Infante from playing in the All Star Game, but they couldn't stop Kansas City from taking the crown. Nothing will stop Donald from taking the crown, either.

@realDonaldTrump Donald, the establishment is circling the wagons. But it's too late to stop you! https://t.co/31yOkAl9wu

— The Will To Win (@TWTWsports) April 25, 2016

@realDonaldTrump if Cruz + Kasich would team up to solve REAL problems, we'd have happy vets and no illegals! https://t.co/31yOkAl9wu

— The Will To Win (@TWTWsports) April 25, 2016

Bench Steph Curry

Danville, Kentucky - They told me I was about to have a slice of pizza that would change my life. I know that was possible. I remember the first time I had a pan pizza from Pizza Hut. The overwhelming crust paired with the  perfect pepperoni to change my belief that hope was not lost. It secured my unending belief that the best pizza in New York could not compare to the pizza one could find in literally any kind of mid-size town in America.

Papa Murphy's is a prelude to the fall of the West. I went to the Papa Murphy's and ordered a pepperoni pizza. A young jokster behind the register handed me a frozen pizza. Wholesome humor was alive in America, I thought. This restaurant could be even better than the Hut. Not since my support of Hubert Humphrey in 1968 was I so wrong.

Papa Murphy's does not cook their pizza. They hand you a slab of frozen pizza and expect you to go home and cook it. I felt embarrassed. Was I the only person without a pizza oven in America? Why was this location charging me the same price for a non-cooked pizza as any other pizza locale would to actually cook the pizza and pay for the cost of an oven? Would my children think me a fool for using so many rhetorical questions in a row? All evils created by Papa Murphy's. I left in anger. Hopeful for the respite of Chick Fil A, I quickly realized it was Sunday. Another night at the Chili's it was. Another night of great food guaranteed.

The 2016 Warriors are a lot like Papa Murphy's. They suck. Sure, the skeptics would say, "Will, have you had a few too many rounds of Chilis' delicious queso and tequila?" Yes, but that has nothing to with reason and everything to do with proper taste. Proper taste tells me the Warriors are not doing well. They've lost home games to the Celtics and have even lost to a Rockets team whose desperate prayers to end the season are met with a laugh from a God who has long ago forsaken them.

James Harden once again getting wrecked by the Based God

The Warriors have a choice to make: continue down the path of defeat or make the change they need. It's time to bench Steph Curry. Steph is a good man. He plays hard and is twice the father with a fourth the marriages I am.

— Andre Iguodala (@andre) September 22, 2014

[Andre Iguodala quoting noted conservative scholar Thomas Sowell]

Steph is too focused on winning the MVP award and getting his own shot. Other than his scores of assists a game and gaudy plus/minus numbers, he does little for his own teammates. Just look at game 4. They won without Steph. The Warriors shot what seems unsustainable against the Rockets, but the post-American era of World War II once seemed unsustainable in the face of defeat after defeat from the forces of Marxists. Yet, the hope was not lost. The fight was not over. America went on to win the Cold War because it focused on being the best America it could be. The Warriors need to focus on being the best Warriors they can be.

Steph has also politicized the Warriors. Mr. Curry now appears in ads with the Obama White House. The same White House that passed Obamacare. When conservatives like Andre Iguodala take the Court, they need a non-partisan leader. I mean, who has any clue what Shaun Livingston thinks about NAFTA? I do. I know a veteran blue collar player like Livingston understands we're losing jobs because of NAFTA. Livingston is the man to lead Golden State and right the lost chemistry of a once proud team. 

The path of the present does not lock us into the future of failure. The Warriors and America can do better. Honestly, if America would just stop eating at Papa Murphy's, I wouldn't give a damn if Steph Curry played or not. But since this country will continue to eat at Papa Murphy's, let's just hope the Warriors play a veteran. 

TWTW's Pistons v. Cavaliers Preview

Danville, Kentucky -- There's no better feeling than picking up your first pay stub at a new job. The nineties were not kind to me. NAFTA battered and bruised me -- I was more crestfallen and defeated than Grant Hill's ankles. In 2005, after a few years of aimlessly bouncing around dead-end jobs, I had a gut feeling that the housing market was the place to be. I got myself an online degree in real estate, and hit the mean streets of Danville to sell houses, eager like I was fired from a cannon. It was beautiful, folks. And there was no feeling more rewarding than spending my hard-earned wages on the best appetizers and bourbon a Danville man can buy. The most important part of my successful real estate venture was that it proved hard work pays off. When faced with unemployment and bankruptcy, I did what all true Americans do: I went back to work.

The Detroit Pistons of 2000-2009 were a team that was all about going to work. They didn't have the flash or the star power of teams like Kobe's Lakers, but they wore opponents down with hard-nosed defense and their grinder mentality. Seven years ago, an aging Pistons team's reign of dominance came to an end when King James unceremoniously dethroned them in the first round of the playoffs. After many seasons of irrelevance, the Pistons are finally back in the playoffs. Seven years later, LeBron must suppress an upstart young Pistons team if he hopes to advance out of the Eastern Conference and vie for one more rematch vs. the San Antonio Spurs or nerd-darlings Golden State Warriors.

Lots of folks these days love to rave about the quality of the Western Conference while disparaging the East. The Western Conference may have a better TS%, shiner PER numbers, more VORP, and Steph Curry, but for all their glitz and glamour, they lack the tenacious grit of the East. Folks, it's good to see two blue collar towns like Cleveland and Detroit squaring off in the playoffs. Here are the key factors that will determine the winner of the series:

MOMENTUM

Folks, the Pistons have all the momentum in this match-up. Fresh off a 112-110 victory over the Cavaliers in the last game of the regular season, they've already set the tone for the series. In addition, the Pistons won the season series 3-1. The city of Detroit is united behind the Pistons, thrilled to see their team back in contention. The city of Cleveland is not united behind the Cavaliers: folks from the mistake on the lake are more preoccupied with the looming threat of political violence as the 2016 Republican National Convention nears. The Cavaliers have limped into the playoffs, reeling from humiliating losses to the Brooklyn Nets, Memphis Grizzlies, and pitiful Chicago Bulls recently. Not to mention, the team is in disarray: at the moment when LeBron needs to lead the team, he won't even follow the Cavaliers on twitter. LeBron wants OUT of Cleveland again, which may put the Pistons back IN to the Conference Semi-Finals. Advantage: Pistons.

COACHING

This first round match-up also presents an intriguing coaching showdown: the veteran Stan Van Gundy versus the unproven Tyronn Lue. SVG has the Pistons united around a single purpose: winning. In Cleveland's Game of Thrones, Lue is just King James' puppet. SVG has tons of playoff experience and once coached the Orlando Magic to the NBA finals; what Lue knows about coaching in the playoffs, SVG could fit into his eyes with little to no discomfort. Advantage: Pistons.

POINT GUARD

Kyrie Irving is the most overrated thing to come out of Cleveland since the Indians. He cares more about his scoring numbers than making his teammates better. Meanwhile, Reggie Jackson is one of the game's clutchest. Advantage: Pistons.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE

While the Pistons have more heart than the quarreling, in-fighting Cavs, they are greener in the gills. They could be mentally unprepared for the challenge that awaits. LeBron alone has played more minutes in the playoffs than the entire Pistons roster. The Pistons might not be ready for the spotlight. Advantage: Cavaliers. 

BENCH

The Pistons bench is depleted like my finances after a trip to the Casino. There will be no cavalry or reinforcements off the bench: just the rotting corpse of Steve Blake. Advantage: Cavaliers.

FINAL PREDICTION

The Pistons have a lot going in their favor. They're young, scrappy, and hungry. Andre Drummond vacuums up rebounds like I vacuum up mini corn dogs at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Yet, the Cavaliers have rings. They also have LeBron James, who in my opinion, is still the game's premier talent -- jacking up threes doesn't impress me, Steph. Kevin Love is a great player, though these days he seems to care more about making bad State Farm commercials than refining his game. I predict the Cavaliers will win in 5 games.

Even in defeat, 2016 is a victory for the Pistons. They have climbed the mountain. They have righted the ship. They have returned to the playoffs. They have gone back to work.

My return to work was short-lived. My time in the real-estate sector was great while it lasted, but like my time at the GM plant and my time on the oil rigs, it wasn't meant to last. Intrusive government regulation and the welfare state eventually brought us the 2008 housing market collapse and the Obama presidency. But with the Obama presidency in its waning days, things are looking up again in America. For the Pistons and millions of other job-seeking Americans across this country, it's time to go to work.

TWTW's March Madness Takes

Danville, Kentucky -- March: a month that begins with wanton consumption of Shamrock Shakes and Irish Whiskey. March: a month that ends with several straight weeks spent at my local Buffalo Wild Wings watching college basketball. It's a thing of beauty. With golden foamy beer on my right and shiny sauced-drenched boneless chicken wings on my left, I feel at one with the universe as the drama of college basketball plays out before my eyes on multiple high-definition big screen TVs. From this perfect vantage point, I can see seniors scrap for survival while mid-major underdogs prove to the world that they truly belong amongst the world's top collegiate athletes. More importantly, the stirring story-lines of the NCAA tournament offer a brief respite from the banal drudgery of my middle-aged, divorced existence.

Lots of nerds will offer lots of hot takes about the tournament. They'll cite Kenpom, eFG%, PER and all manor of statistics as they offer advice on how to fill out your bracket. What these number-crunchers don't understand is that the glorious March tradition of cannot be explained or predicted by looking at a team's Pythagorean win/loss record. March Madness is like the gladiatorial contests of ancient Rome: statistics mean nothing when a scrappy Cinderella team like 2012 Norfolk State is determined to defy the odds in stunning fashion.

Don't trust the metrics. Trust your own eyes. Here are my thoughts on March Madness. Fill out your brackets accordingly.

Don't Sleep on Bakersfield

Bakersfield is not like the rest of California. A solitary bulwark of working class values in an otherwise irredeemably blue state, Bakersfield has been at the receiving end of the gut-punch that is globalization and unfettered free trade. It's Bakersfield that bears the brunt of Los Angeles' profligate air pollution, boasting the worst air-quality in the country. Bakersfield is one of America's top energy producing cities, where many folks' economic well-being lives or dies on the oil rig. The recent crash in gasoline prices has hit these good folks hard; the only thing they are holding on to is the dream of the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners making a run at March Madness glory.

And let me tell you, the people of Bakersfield are good people. My Uncle Truman, named after the last president truly tough enough to win a war, has lived there his whole life. Bakersfield is a hard-working city, where people go to premier watering-holes like Goose Loonies Tavern after a long day at the oil rig. Bakersfield is one of the few cities to stand up against the forces of globalization that are holding back American ingenuity and innovation. In 1993, Donald Trump spoke out against NAFTA at the Cal State Bakersfield campus. In 2016, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield endorsed Trump as the candidate most likely to energize the Republican Party. Bakersfield is ground zero for NAFTA's devastation, but this city is also where NAFTA will meet its final defeat.

The proletarian grit of the Bakersfield Roadrunners doesn't show up on a Kenpom spreadsheet. Oklahoma (2) versus CSU Bakersfield (15) has major upset potential, for those of you at home filling out brackets. Oklahoma's recent defeat in the Big 12 tournament at the hands of the scrappy full-court pressing West Virginia Moutaineers bodes ill for the Sooners' chances against the similarly feisty Roadrunners. If Bakersfield pulls a page from genius coach Bob Huggins' playbook, it could be a long night for OU, a team that shoots way too many threes. Bakersfield, fresh off a clutch buzzer-beating win in the WAC championship game, has all the momentum. The Roadrunners play a high-intensity, physical brand of defense that could very well thwart jump-shot reliant players like Buddy Hield. Don't bet against the Roadrunners.

Baylor Bears: Young, Scrappy, Hungry

The Baylor Bears have TWTW. Taurean Prince was once a commit to LIU-Brooklyn. I'm not sure what LIU stands for, but Prince stands for winning. He now projects to be a first round NBA draft pick? How did he do it? By spending his summer in the gym instead of playing Xbox One Live.

Then they have Rico Gathers. He's planning to play in the NFL. Baylor has a pro day for the NFL. Lots of kids skip class to go to parties. Rico is skipping pro day to go play in the tournament. What a player - he cares more about the team he's committed to than having "measurables" for Roger Goodell. With a matchup against Yale nerds in the first round, don't bet against the Bears.

Wichita State Seniors: Experience Counts

The Shockers are a team so good I can't believe Kenpom likes them. There's a lot to like about the Shockers: they have senior veteran leadership, tons of tournament experience, and great chemistry. Evan Wessel, Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are not only top tier talents, but best friends. They've been to the big dance before. Most important of all, the Shockers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being disrespected by the selection committee with an 11 seed. On paper, Wichita State probably wasn't as good as the Kansas Jayhawks team they beat in the 3rd round of the tournament last year. But Wichita State had something that doesn't show up on paper: hustle and friendship. I like this team to make a deep run.

Greg Marshall even turned down job offers to coach this team. Coach Marshall knew he could head to Alabama or some other state that also has great seafood. Instead, he realized you can still get great seafood in Kansas if you just know where the right Red Lobster is located. Marshall knows where the right wins are in the tournament. Take them to advance.

KU: A Team in Need of 2's

The Kansas Jayhawks are another team that is difficult to pick against. They have Shocker-esque chemistry and camaraderie.

My buddy in Lawrence just saw Devonte Graham and Tyler Self at @BWWings. The team that wings together wins together. #MarchMadness

— The Will To Win (@TWTWsports) March 14, 2016

They've also got a ton of momentum on their side, coming fresh off an authoritative romp through the Big 12 tournament. Yet, I have my reservations about this team. Long story short, they shoot too many 3's. The folks calling for KU to take more threes, Five Thirty Eight included, are dead wrong. Unfortunately, Bill Self seems to have listened to them. I've never understood the second-guessing nerds who think they can design a better offense than 12-time Big 12 champion Bill Self. There's a reason Bill Self is the coach, and there's a reason his critics are mostly bloggers. The KU three-pointer debate is often framed as a forced choice between chucking up threes and feeding the ball to Perry Ellis down low. Folks, I know the perfect middle ground: KU needs to stop being afraid of taking mid-range two-pointers.

I think there is big upset potential if KU has to face Connecticut. Connecticut is angry they were left out of a major conference. It's why they won the tournament in 2013 despite having nowhere near the best players - that team needed overtime in the round of 64 to beat St. Joe's before winning the whole ship.

The House Tom Izzo Built: This is (March) Madness

Folks, nobody does more with less than Tom Izzo. His recruits aren't as flashy or beloved by metrics as some other schools, but his great in-game managing ensures that the Spartans get the most out of the roster that they have. The "snub factor" I described with Wichita State is also at play here with MSU -- Izzo and his boys know they're a #1 seed, and will be pumped up as they attempt to prove the selection committee wrong. This could be the year Izzo gets Michigan State a second NCAA Championship.

Conclusion

You could spend hours creating a bracket by analyzing luck ratings, home/road splits, and strength of schedule numbers. Or you can go with your gut. The NCAA tournament is predictably unpredictable. But there is one thing I can confidently predict: narrative matters.