Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts

Sunday, February 5, 2017

TWTW's Super Bowl LI Preview


Danville, Kentucky -- Long, long, ago, in a far-off distant land called Foxborough, legend tells of a boy who rose from obscurity to become a great leader of men. A man who stood in the shadow of lesser men while serving as the backup quarterback of the Michigan Wolverines. A Michigan man who became a New England man, thrust into service after the injury of Drew Bledsoe back in that fateful 2001 NFL season. An unheralded 6th round draft pick who showed America that any man can do anything with hard work and a little luck.


Folks, I remember where I was in February of 2002, when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots faced a team from St. Louis that belonged in Los Angeles in Super Bowl XXXVI. After Bledsoe's injury, I followed Mr. Brady with a great degree of curiosity; even then, it seemed as though we were witnessing history in the making. Fast forward 15 years, several lousy trade deals and disastrous forays into nation-building in the Middle East later, and Tom Brady is on the precipice of providing a tidy bookend to an illustrious NFL career that began with an improbable Super Bowl victory all those years ago.

Tom Brady's path to Super Bowl LI, to be played tonight against the Atlanta Falcons, was not without controversy. Folks, I thought Brady was dead to me after news of the heart-breaking Deflate-Gate scandal of 2015 broke. To an uninformed outsider, it seemed as though Brady had abandoned the Michigan Man grit so central to his legend and mythos, in favor of becoming a member of the NFL aristocracy that plays by a different set of rules. But sometimes, a man must admit when he has made a mistake.

Folks, more often than not I'm right. I correctly predicted that the Kansas City Royals would emerge victorious in both the 2015 American League Championship Series and World Series. I correctly predicted the resurgence of Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander. I correctly predicted that Peyton Manning would lead the Denver Broncos to victory in the last Superbowl, despite the scorn I received from liberal commentators heralding the rise of Cam Newton. I correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the 2016 election. Folks, if liberals didn't look at me like I'm some sort of neanderthal just because I enjoy a good bowl of queso at Chilis now and then, I'd already have a job at FiveThirtyEight given this pedigree and resume of correct forecasts. But I'll admit: I got Tom Brady wrong.

When the Deflate-Gate news broke, I was dumbstruck. How could the man who had authored so many Super Bowl success stories be nothing more than a liar and a crook? I even called for the man to be banned from the NFL. In retrospect, the swiftness with which I condemned Mr. Brady was uncalled for. But the mainstream media deserves its share of the blame. The media is always quick to pounce upon those who wear their political opinions on their sleeves like Mr. Brady. Crooked Roger Goodell was also quick to stack the deck against Brady by falsifying pounds-per-square-inch data, cooking the books worse than the National Park service did with Trump's historically well-attended inaugural address.
I was misled by the corrupt NFL establishment and their media toadies. But I won't be misled again. I un-apologetically predict a Tom Brady triumph tonight, on the biggest stage in all of professional sports.

Touchdown Tom has so much more to play for than the Atlanta Falcons: with his 5th Super Bowl victory, he would secure his legacy as the greatest NFL quarterback of all time. A final Super Bowl ring would be a fitting bookend to career that has spanned nearly two decades, beginning with his first Super Bowl win at age 24 and a 2017 swan song at age 39.

My unabashed admiration for Mr. Brady is no longer fashionable; the radical left is determined to politicize this Super Bowl, citing Brady's "Trump Problem." Folks, I don't know when it became a "Problem" to be on the winning team or why it is now politically incorrect to be an outspoken supporter of the President of the United States. St. Louis Cardinals slugger Stan Musial didn't get lambasted by the media for campaigning with John F. Kennedy, the man who brought us the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion. Folks, I don't remember Steph Curry getting criticized for being an avowed supported of Marxist tyrant Barack Obama.


Nope, this is just part of the continuing double standard, a double standard that leads the media to smear good men like Brady, a double standard that keeps me unemployed while Nate Silver lives large despite an awful track record of predictions. It turns out that in the world of sports, only liberals are allowed to express their political opinions.

The Atlanta Falcons really have nothing on the Patriots. Teams from Atlanta can't win; it probably has something to do with lingering humiliation over Sherman's March. Just ask the Atlanta Braves: perennial regular season champs, permanent postseason losers. I have no respect for the city of Atlanta ever since my wife deserted me at The Varsity drive-in restaurant, taking my kids, my car, and my collection of Bon Jovi cassettes with her. Matt Ryan, aka "Matty Ice," is a Boston College educated elitist who has never known the crisp taste of "Natty Ice," a drink of the people.


Super Bowl LI has become more than a football game. It is now a referendum on Trump's America writ large. The stakes are high: this game will decide the fate of both Tom Brady and Donald Trump's legacies. This Super Bowl presents the nation with an easy choice: a New England Patriots win will be yet another victory for the still-young Trump administration, imbuing further momentum in Donald's efforts to Make America Great Again. An Atlanta Falcons win would be a catastrophic setback, imperiling Trump's efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare, secure our borders, and reverse globalization. Tom Brady's journey to legend status began some 15 years ago. It's ending has not yet been written. Tonight, Mr. Brady will not only deliver a win for the New England Patriots; America itself will be taught a valuable lesson on how to win with class and dignity. That should cause every loyal American patriot's heart to inflate with pride.

Friday, October 7, 2016

The TWTW Election Model: Trump's Path to 270


Danville, Kentucky -- Folks, I know a winner when I see one. Since I started this little old blog a few years ago, I've demonstrated my prowess at predicting the outcomes of political and sporting events alike. Here's a quick recap of correct predictions I've made:
Folks, that's a better track record of successful predictions than any nerd like Nate Silver, and I did it all without putting you to sleep with graphs, forecasts, and disclaimers about the "margin of error." I don't have a crystal ball, just impeccable intuition.

Now, I'm ready to make a new prediction. Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. It took digging into the data, some un-skewing, and a hard look at the fundamentals of this volatile race, but my conclusions are iron-clad, as iron-clad as the industrial metal factories that once littered the Rust Belt before the dark days of NAFTA and Hillarycare.

Pictured below is how the electoral map will more or less shake out. The key "tipping point" states: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Trump will lose some electoral votes out on the amoral secular East and West coasts of our country, but perform solidly in the states that Hillary's corporate donors condescendingly refer to as "fly-over country." The Rust Belt states that have been left behind by globalization and the continued atrophy of Blockbuster Video jobs will propel Trump to a decisive victory.


In what follows, I will break the map down state-by-state to show you how Trump will pull off the greatest upset in political history.

Nevada (6) -- Hillary

My projection system is willing to concede Nevada to Hillary while still confidently predicting an overall Trump win. Why? Nevada is populated mostly by godless heathens who enjoy gambling, prostitution, and illicit drug use. Nevada is a state full of two kinds of people: voyeuristic thrill-seekers with addiction-prone personalities, and hard-working folks employed at casinos and brothels so that these thrills are possible in the first place. The latter category of people will overwhelmingly vote for Trump but won't be able to make it to the polls, as they will be too busy cleaning up the messes and bodily fluids of Hillary's supporters in Nevada. Because of this, I anticipate low turnout from the Trump crowd, flipping Nevada to Clinton.

Colorado (9) -- Hillary

Colorado will go to Clinton for similar reasons. It is hard to see a state that legalized marijuana voting for Trump, a man that has promised to bring work-ethic back to America after 8 years of democratic malaise and indolence. Meanwhile, a recent poll of registered voters shows 61% of Colorado residents believe pot legalization has had a positive impact on their state. There's no hope for these people, folks.

Arizona (11) -- Trump

Trump is a lock in Arizona. The folks of Arizona witness the chaos of America's broken borders firsthand on a day-to-day basis. They know we need the wall, and they want Trump on that wall. They know about the massive Keynesian economic stimulus that building the wall will bring to their state. Arizona is tired of politically-correct losers like John McCain who can't get Obamacare repealed and are afraid of launching a full Congressional investigation into Hillary's body double. They're ready for Trump.

Iowa (6) -- Trump

Expect Trump to eke out Iowa in a nail-biter. Expect Crooked Hillary to perform well with the spoiled college students of Iowa City and Ames. Expect Donald to perform better with the beautiful state's forgotten rural areas, where the hard-working folks who farm our nation's corn, soybeans and pork make their living off the land. Iowa's humble farmers want to bring agriculture jobs back to their home state, and they know Trump is the man to do it. The polls show it. A completely representative and not cherry-picked poll from Dubuque, Iowa's Loras College found that:
A clear majority (57 percent) of likely voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with less than a third of respondents (28 percent) indicating they believe the country is on the right track.[source]
Iowans who hail from quiet towns like AplingtonMalvern, and Mount Sterling are furious. They're pessimistic about the direction of the country under President Obama and his cronies Clinton and Kaine. Why? Because the continued automation of agriculture jobs is hurting their pocketbooks and their job prospects. Iowans have no love for robots, or for robot-loving politicians like Hillary Clinton. Iowan farmhands who fear losing their jobs to automation will never trust a woman who used computers to email on the job and supported Obama's unconstitutional drone war. Put your money on Trump to come up big in the Hawkeye State.

Wisconsin (10) -- Trump

Wisconsin is a perfect fit for Trump. I've written about that here. Wisconsin is overwhelmingly preoccupied on a single issue: the future of their public educational system, with polls showing that education is at the forefront of every Wisconsin voter's mind [source].


Thanks to Scott Walker and Paul Ryan's austerity agenda, Wisconsin's public schools have been devastated. Teacher strikes and protests are a constant fixture in Wisconsin these days, due to the failure of Walker and Ryan's brand of conservatism. Wisconsin wants a man with a strong background in education, who can turn the decline of the state's schools around. Fortunately, Trump is a man with strong credentials on education. Folks of Wisconsin will be aware of the wild success of Trump University. They know that an outsider's perspective is needed to Make Our Public Schools Great Again. Wisconsin leans firmly in Trump's favor.

Michigan (16) -- Trump


This prediction is going to make the nerds laugh out loud. As of writing this article, Nate Silver's math machine overwhelmingly predicts that Clinton will carry Michigan.


However, let's not forget the last time Nate Silver made a prediction about Michigan.


That's right: old Nate gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning the Michigan Democratic primary, which turned out to be an epic Bernie Sanders victory.

Folks, Nate Silver is about to be wrong about Michigan all over again. You couldn't build a state more favorable to Trump than Michigan. Folks want their auto jobs back. They have born witness to the dangers of illegal Canadian immigration and love Trump's hard-nosed deportation policies.

More importantly, two factors lead me to place Michigan comfortably in Trump's column.

First, Michigan is experiencing an influx of Chic-fil-A restaurants. That bodes well for Trump. Liberals despise Chic-fil-A for not adhering to the globalist, politically-correct, anti-Christian consensus of the modern left. The fact that this beloved chicken franchise is taking root in a formerly blue state shows that Hillary can't get overconfident here.

Second, Trump has received some key endorsements from important figures in Michigan culture. Tom Brady, Michigan Man and Wolverine legend, said "it would be great" if Trump became president. Jim Harbaugh, by far the most popular man in the entire state, praised Trump for not being afraid "to fight the establishment" [source]. Here's a chart that visualizes my own proprietary polling data on the favorability of Brady and Harbaugh relative to Hillary:


As you can see, Trump is poised to benefit from a huge polling bounce in Michigan thanks to his popular surrogates, Brady and Harbaugh. Take it to the bank: Trump will win the Mitten State.

Ohio (18) -- Trump


As a Danville native, I'm familiar with the cultural climate of neighboring Ohio. Now that Cleveland's Cavaliers and Indians have gotten a taste of winning, the state of Ohio is ready move on to the main course by hopping aboard the Trump Train. Yet, all is not well in the state of LeBron. Ohio-area Big Boy restaurants have taken a beating over the years since the departure of jobs from NAFTA. You can't even order a Swiss Miss without a tear falling onto the rye bun these days.


Fortunately for Ohioans, a centerpiece of Trump's economic plan is to revitalize our nation's family-friendly dining experience. Trump has proposed a wave of Trump tariffs to be imposed on foreign competitors like Mexico and China. This plan would ensure that Big Boy will once again be protected from cheap foreign competitors like Chipotle. Trump will ride this economic plan to a crucial victory in Ohio.

Pennsylvania (20) -- Trump

Multiple indicators point to a Trump win in Pennsylvania, a pivotal state that Clinton needs to win. Pennsylvania is a state that is down on it's luck: the Philadelphia Phillies and Philadelphia 76ers were both bottom-dwelling last-place teams this season, with the Eagles and Flyers not giving much reason for optimism either. The city has hit rock bottom. The hard-working people of Philly know that America needs a new direction. They'll go for Trump.

Florida (29) -- Trump

For many years, the good folks in sunny Florida have been cursed with Rick Scott, a sickly looking RINO governor that resembles Michael Stipe. The last thing they want is a sickly and diseased President Hillary Clinton, who is very secretive about her numerous grave medical conditions. Florida wants a man who embodies vitality, vigor, energy, and dynamism. They want Trump.

CONCLUSION

The TWTW Election Model draws upon a robust selection of anecdotes spanning across a number of fields. The 538 model doesn't give you the whole picture, folks. Most mainstream election forecasts rely on telephone polls, which are notoriously unreliable insofar as they over-sample Americans who own government-subsidized Obamaphones. The TWTW model on the other hand, utilizes contextual factors unique to each state (like the favorability of athletes or the presence of certain fried chicken franchises). The broad array of indicators surveyed here lead me to predict a Trump victory with the utmost confidence. Come November, the TWTW model will be vindicated while Nate Silver's incompetence is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, once and for all.
The TWTW Election Model is based on anecdotes and interviews with 0 or more randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the direction of Will Hart.  The survey includes results among roughly 3-6 likely voters from Danville, Kentucky.